March 24, 2025 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- Oil prices start the week with a dip
- Summary: Crude oil prices declined at the start of the week, with Brent at $71.92 and WTI at $68.06 per barrel, despite two prior weekly gains fueled by U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ production quota compliance efforts. OPEC+ plans to proceed with a modest April output rollback of 138,000 barrels daily, amid concerns that a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could boost Russian exports and pressure prices further, despite lingering doubts about member compliance with compensation cuts. Speculators increased Brent crude net long positions by nearly 53,000 lots to 206,138, driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and short covering, according to ING analysts.
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- New oil projects set to flood market in 2025
- Summary: Global oil supply is set to rise by nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the largest increase in a decade, driven by major projects in Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, provided oil prices remain above $50 per barrel. However, demand uncertainty persists, with supply overhang projections ranging from 100,000 bpd (EIA) to 600,000 bpd (IEA), as China’s post-pandemic import normalization and sluggish global demand growth raise concerns. Despite this, IEA head Fatih Birol stressed the ongoing need for oil and gas investments to counter field declines and maintain energy security, signaling a shift from previous transition-focused narratives.
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- Natural gas continues to see overhead resistance
- Summary: Natural gas prices have seen a slight increase but continue to face strong resistance near the key $4 level, which has historically served as both support and resistance. If prices drop below Friday’s lows, they could decline further toward $3.50, signaling a bearish trend, whereas a breakout above $4 may push prices toward $4.20. Market volatility remains high, and seasonal factors such as rising temperatures and increasing storage levels are expected to reduce demand, contributing to further downward pressure. Given the cyclical nature of the market, traders should closely monitor storage reports and demand trends in the coming weeks.
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- US oil and gas rigs rise for first time in three weeks, Baker Hughes says
- Summary: U.S. energy firms added one oil and gas rig this week, bringing the total to 593, though the count remains 31 rigs (5%) lower than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by one to 486, while gas rigs increased by two to 102, with Oklahoma’s rig count reaching 53, the highest since May 2023. Despite forecasts of lower crude prices in 2025, the EIA projects U.S. crude output to rise to 13.6 million barrels per day and gas production to increase to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day, driven by a projected 91% increase in gas prices.
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- AI boom favors natural gas over coal
- Summary: The AI-driven surge in electricity demand is prolonging the operation of some U.S. coal plants, but natural gas remains the primary beneficiary of this growth. Despite President Trump’s efforts to boost coal power, analysts expect natural gas to capture most of the increasing energy needs due to its flexibility and reliability. The EIA projects a 6% rise in U.S. coal generation in 2025 due to higher natural gas prices but anticipates an 8% decline in 2026, while natural gas is expected to maintain steady growth amid rising AI-related power consumption.
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- Trump open to extending Chevron’s oil license in Venezuela
- Summary: President Trump is considering extending Chevron’s license to produce oil in Venezuela, despite previously stating he would reverse a Biden-era decision allowing its operations there. The Treasury Department had given Chevron until April 3 to wind down activities, but during a White House meeting with CEO Mike Wirth and other oil executives, Trump showed openness to an extension. The administration is also exploring financial penalties for countries engaging in business with Venezuela, while Chevron maintains compliance with U.S. laws and sanctions in its operations.
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