Valor, Author at Oil and Gas Outsourcing and Mineral Management

Valor | Energy Connection – May 5, 2025

Posted on May 5, 2025 by Valor

May 5, 2025 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

Oil prices drop as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms
Summary: Oil prices dropped over 1% Monday, with Brent at $60.39 and WTI at $57.31 per barrel, after OPEC+ announced a June output hike of 411,000 bpd. This brings total increases for April–June to 960,000 bpd, unwinding 44% of prior cuts. Barclays cut its 2025 Brent forecast by $4 to $66, citing surplus concerns and weak demand.
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US drillers cut rigs for first time in three weeks, Baker Hughes says
Summary: U.S. drillers cut three oil and gas rigs this week, bringing the total to 584, down 21 rigs or 3% from a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by four to 479, while gas rigs rose by two to 101; the Permian basin dropped to 287 rigs, its lowest since December 2021. Crude prices have slumped 20% in 2025, fueling concerns over capital spending and investor returns.
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Trump moves to expand offshore drilling, including Gulf of Maine
Summary: The Trump administration plans to expand offshore oil and gas drilling, including in the Gulf of Maine, and accelerate permitting by cutting review times from years to weeks. Environmental groups and Maine lawmakers opposed the move, citing threats to fisheries and tourism, while Senators Collins and King proposed a drilling ban. Despite the push, experts note the Gulf has low oil and gas potential due to its geology.
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Shell is studying merits of BP deal as rival’s stock slumps
Summary: Shell is evaluating a potential acquisition of BP as BP’s stock has dropped nearly 33% over the past year, reducing its market value to £56 billion — less than half of Shell’s £149 billion. The deal, still in early stages, could become one of the largest in oil industry history but depends on further declines in BP’s stock and oil prices. Shell is also considering smaller acquisitions or share buybacks instead.
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ExxonMobil continues to prove it’s the best-run company in the oil patch
Summary: ExxonMobil posted $7.7B in Q1 earnings and $13B in operating cash flow, driven by 4.6M BOE/day production—up 20% from last year. It returned $9.1B to shareholders, including $4.8B in buybacks and $4.3B in dividends, marking its 42nd consecutive annual dividend increase. With $12.7B in annual cost savings and 10 new projects planned, Exxon expects $20B more in earnings by 2030.
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New budget cuts clean energy, boosts fossil fuel research
Summary: President Trump’s 2026 budget proposal aims to cut over $15 billion in funding for carbon capture and renewable energy programs, shifting focus toward fossil fuels and nuclear energy. It also proposes eliminating $6 billion for electric vehicle chargers and reducing funding for climate programs, including NOAA grants and EPA climate research. The budget signals a major pivot away from climate-focused policies and towards fossil fuel R&D.
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U.S. natural gas futures hold onto gains
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures rose 0.1% to $3.634/mmBtu as bullish traders returned to the market despite falling oil prices. OPEC+ plans to add 411,000 barrels per day in June, which could pressure U.S. shale and support gas prices long term. However, EBW Analytics warns the short-term rally may falter due to weak seasonal fundamentals.
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The information provided by Valor in this blog is for general informational purposes only, not to provide specific recommendations or legal or tax-related advice. The blog/website should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.

Valor | Energy Connection – Apr. 28, 2025

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Valor

April 28, 2025 Edition

Crude oil prices drop on demand fears
Summary: Crude oil prices fell over $1 per barrel on Monday, with Brent down 1.63% to $65.78 and WTI down 1.82% to $61.87, amid U.S.-China trade war demand fears. Brent crude posted a weekly decline of over 1% despite slight gains earlier. OPEC+ may propose accelerating output hikes on May 5 as bearish sentiment grows.
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Big oil and mining giants join the white hydrogen rush
Summary: Major companies like Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Gazprom, and BP Ventures are investing in natural hydrogen, with Fortescue funding $21.9 million for expanded exploration. Analysts expect 2025 to be pivotal, though progress remains slow. Critics warn extraction may take decades and be economically challenging.
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Trump fast-tracks oil and mining projects
Summary: The Trump administration will fast-track oil, gas, and mining permits on public lands, cutting review times from up to two years to just 28 days under emergency powers. The U.S., producing 20 million barrels of oil daily, aims to expand energy projects but faces backlash and lawsuits from environmental groups. Workforce cuts at the Department of the Interior, which employs about 70,000, could hamper oversight.
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ConocoPhillips plans layoffs after Marathon Oil acquisition
Summary: ConocoPhillips plans workforce reductions following its $23 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil, aiming to cut costs and streamline operations through its ‘Competitive Edge’ project. The company, which employed about 11,800 people by end-2024, will reveal specific layoff details in Q4. ConocoPhillips is also considering asset sales in Oklahoma to optimize its portfolio.
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Amazon and Nvidia weigh fossil fuels for AI power
Summary: Amazon and Nvidia executives stated that all energy options, including fossil fuels like natural gas, are under consideration to meet the growing energy demands of AI. While Amazon focuses on renewable energy, it acknowledges the need for thermal generation in the short term. Nvidia also emphasizes the need for power, though both companies express unease about using coal.
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US rig count up slightly amid oil market turbulence
Summary: The U.S. rig count increased by three in the week ending April 25, marking a small victory for the Trump administration’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda. Despite this, industry experts warn that oil prices under $60 per barrel and rising steel tariffs may harm profitability. U.S. oil producers face pressure, with production costs rising by up to 14%, and global oil demand growth projections have been revised down to just 730,000 barrels per day.
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Canadian drillers pivot to gas as trade war impacts oil prices
Summary: Amid ongoing trade tensions, Canadian drillers have shifted focus from oil to natural gas, with drilling licenses for gas wells up 26% in Q1 2025, while oil well licenses dropped by 24%. The move is driven by stable returns from natural gas amid volatile oil prices, trade disputes, and OPEC+ production increases. This shift is expected to continue through 2025-2026, as natural gas presents more favorable investment conditions.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Apr. 21, 2025

Posted on April 21, 2025April 21, 2025 by Valor

April 21, 2025 Edition

Oil prices dip amid U.S.-Iran talks and tariff concerns
Summary: Oil prices fell 1.5% on April 21, 2025, with Brent at $66.81 and WTI at $63.58, amid progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks that could bring Iranian crude back to the market. Investor sentiment weakened due to tariff-related economic concerns, with a Reuters poll indicating a 50% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. OPEC+ plans to increase output by 411,000 bpd in May, but rising global supplies and potential quota adjustments are influencing market outlook.
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Natural gas market struggles to find its footing: here’s why
Summary: U.S. natural gas prices fell nearly 8% last week to $3.249/MMBtu, their lowest since January, despite a smaller-than-expected storage build of 16 Bcf, which was below the five-year average of 50 Bcf. Total gas supply averaged 112.3 Bcf/day, while consumption dropped to 103 Bcf/day due to warmer weather reducing residential and power demand. Record-breaking production and soft near-term demand continue to pressure prices, although strong LNG export demand offers longer-term support.
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U.S. natural gas production remained flat in 2024
Summary: In 2024, U.S. marketed natural gas production remained nearly flat at 113 Bcf/d, with Permian output rising 12% to 25.4 Bcf/d, offsetting declines in Haynesville and stagnant Appalachia production. Haynesville’s output fell 11% to 14.6 Bcf/d due to reduced drilling amid low prices, while Appalachia’s growth was limited by pipeline constraints. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.21/MMBtu in 2024, the lowest on record and 16% below the 2023 average.
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New offshore leasing program boosts gulf of america energy sector
Summary: On April 18, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior initiated the 11th National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program, launching a 45-day public comment period to shape future offshore lease sales. The Gulf of America contributes nearly $33 billion annually to the U.S. economy and supports approximately 400,000 jobs. This program aims to bolster American energy security and sustain investment in offshore energy production.
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Chevron starts oil production from Ballymore in Gulf of America
Summary: Chevron has commenced oil and gas production from the Ballymore subsea tieback project in the deepwater Gulf of America. The project is expected to produce up to 75,000 barrels of oil per day through three wells tied back to the existing Chevron-operated Blind Faith facility. Chevron aims to produce 300,000 net barrels per day of oil equivalent from the Gulf by 2026.
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U.S. rig count increases by two as oil prices climb
Summary: The U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by two to 585 rigs, with 481 targeting oil and 98 exploring for natural gas. The Permian Basin remained at 289 rigs, down from 318 a year ago. Oil prices also saw an increase, with the regional benchmark ending at $61.16 per barrel and the national benchmark at $64.68 per barrel, both up by $3.18.
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How Oil Prices Impact Mineral Owners

Posted on April 17, 2025April 17, 2025 by Valor

When oil prices shift, mineral owners may feel the effects—but not always immediately.

The Link Between Oil Prices and Mineral Royalties

Mineral royalties are directly tied to the price at which oil and gas are sold, which makes commodity pricing one of the most important factors influencing a mineral owner’s income. Here’s how it works: after oil is extracted from the ground, it’s sold by the operator at the current market rate—typically tied to benchmarks like WTI (West Texas Intermediate) or Brent crude. The total gross revenue from that sale becomes the foundation for calculating royalties.

Royalty owners are entitled to a fixed percentage of this gross revenue, often ranging between 12.5% and 25%, depending on the lease terms. However, that percentage is not applied to profits—it’s based on the revenue before expenses. If the price of oil drops from $80 to $65 per barrel, for example, the gross revenue generated from the same production volume also drops proportionally. That reduced revenue translates to lower royalty payments, even if the number of barrels produced remains constant.

It’s also worth noting that operators may apply post-production deductions (such as transportation, marketing, or processing costs), which can further decrease the net royalty payment. The end result is that mineral owners feel a compounded effect: lower market prices and possible deductions both working against their earnings.

When prices are strong, mineral owners benefit directly from higher revenues and possibly increased operator activity. But when prices decline, even temporarily, owners can expect a noticeable dip in income—though it may take a few months to show up due to payment lags.

How Quickly Do Mineral Owners Feel the Impact?

Royalty payments typically lag behind actual production and pricing by 60 to 90 days. For example:

Oil sold in January is often paid out in March or April.
So, a price drop in April might not show up in your royalty check until June or July.

This delay is due to the time it takes for operators to report production, calculate revenue, and distribute payments to royalty owners.

What About Gas Prices?

For mineral owners with natural gas-producing assets, the same principles apply—but with potentially more volatility. Gas prices are influenced by seasonal demand (like winter heating or summer electricity usage), storage levels, and export capacity, in addition to global market forces.

Do Lower Oil Prices Affect Operators Too?

Absolutely. Lower prices can squeeze profit margins for operators, especially those with higher breakeven costs. As a result:

– Production may slow down, particularly on marginal wells.
– New drilling projects may be delayed or canceled, reducing future royalty opportunities.
– Shut-ins can occur if wells become uneconomic to operate, cutting off royalty income temporarily.

In short, sustained low prices can lead to reduced cash flow for both operators and mineral owners alike.

How Changing Oil Prices Impact the General Public

Fluctuations in oil prices don’t just affect mineral and royalty owners—they influence the everyday lives of consumers and businesses across the country. When oil prices rise, fuel costs typically increase as well, which can lead to higher prices at the gas pump, elevated airfare, and increased costs for shipping and goods. On the other hand, when prices fall, transportation and energy costs may drop, offering temporary financial relief for households and businesses. However, significant swings in either direction can have broader economic consequences. Prolonged periods of low prices can slow investment and result in job losses in oil-dependent regions, while prolonged high prices can drive inflation and reduce consumer spending power. Ultimately, oil prices are a key economic indicator with a wide-reaching impact that extends well beyond the oil and gas industry.

What Else Should Mineral Owners Know?

Royalty statements might vary month to month, even without price changes, due to volume fluctuations, deductions, or other adjustments. But price drops are one of the most direct causes of decreased income.
Tracking oil prices regularly—especially WTI (West Texas Intermediate) if your minerals are in Texas—can give you a good sense of where your royalty checks may be headed.
If you have questions about why your royalty payments have changed, always review your check detail and reach out to the operator—or your mineral management firm—for clarification.

Staying Prepared with a Long-Term View

Mineral ownership is a long game. Prices will always rise and fall, but informed and proactive owners can weather the volatility. At Valor, we help mineral owners:

1. Monitor revenue trends
2. Identify unexpected dips or discrepancies
3. Prepare for downturns by ensuring assets are optimized and properly managed

Whether prices are high or low, having the right team and technology in place makes all the difference.

How Valor Helps Provide Clarity and Stability

In a constantly shifting market, mineral owners need more than just royalty checks—they need transparency, organization, and dependable support. At Valor, we bring clarity to your portfolio through powerful technology and dedicated expertise. With our proprietary software, mineral.tech®, and experienced in-house team, we provide real-time insights into your revenue trends, production data, and asset performance. This level of visibility allows you to feel confident in your income, regardless of changes in commodity pricing. Our role is to ensure your interests are managed proactively, your documentation is in order, and you always have a clear picture of what you own and what it’s earning. When markets move, you can count on Valor to be a steady, informed partner—helping you make sense of every statement and supporting long-term financial stability.

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Are you ready to transform your oil and gas assets? Contact Valor today to learn how our innovative solutions can elevate your business to new heights.

Valor | Energy Connection – Apr. 14, 2025

Posted on April 14, 2025April 14, 2025 by Valor

April 14, 2025 Edition

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline through 2026
Summary: Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline through 2026 due to recession risks and rising OPEC+ supply. Brent and WTI are forecast to average $63 and $59 per barrel for the rest of 2025, and $58 and $55 in 2026. Demand growth is projected at only 300,000 bpd by end-2025, while global surpluses may reach 800,000 bpd in 2025 and 1.4 million bpd in 2026. In a slowdown or full OPEC+ reversal scenario, Brent could fall into the $40 range or lower. Beijing’s new 125% tariff on U.S. imports further escalates trade tensions impacting demand.
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Russia targets major surge in natural gas exports by 2050
Summary: Russia aims to double its natural gas exports by 2030 and triple them by 2050 under its new energy strategy. The country’s gas exports are expected to increase from 146 bcm in 2023 to 293 bcm by 2030, and up to 438 bcm by 2050. Crude oil production is projected to rise slightly, from 531 million metric tons in 2023 to 540 million by 2050, with oil exports remaining steady at around 235 million tons per year. The strategy includes expanding exports to “friendly countries” and boosting Arctic energy development.
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Oil rig count slides amid oil price turbulence
Summary: The total U.S. rig count fell by 7 to 583 this week, down 34 from last year, with oil rigs dropping by 9 to 480 and gas rigs rising by 1 to 97. U.S. crude production decreased slightly to 13.458 million bpd, 173,000 bpd below the record high in December 2024, while the Permian Basin rig count fell by 5 to 289—27 fewer than last year. Amid OPEC+ output increases and trade tensions, WTI fell to $60.54 and Brent to $63.93, both more than $1 lower than the previous week’s prices.
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BP makes deepwater oil discovery in gulf of america
Summary: BP has made an oil discovery at the Far South prospect in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of America, 120 miles off Louisiana’s coast, in 4,092 feet of water. The discovery, drilled to 23,830 feet, is co-owned by BP (57.5%) and Chevron (42.5%), with preliminary data indicating a potentially commercial volume. This discovery supports BP’s strategy to increase Gulf of America production to over 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, as part of its broader plan to reach 2.3-2.5 million boepd global production by 2030.
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Debate flares over texas’ proposed oil and gas waste rule
Summary: Texas is updating its oil and gas waste rules for the first time since 1984, proposing new requirements for pits and commercial facilities that manage drilling waste like produced water and cuttings. The Railroad Commission’s draft includes stricter standards for liners, groundwater monitoring, and registration, but critics argue it lacks adequate protections—especially since Texas recorded 712 water contamination violations since 2015 and 3.9 billion barrels of produced water are generated annually in the Permian Basin alone. Industry groups support revisions to reduce costs, while environmental advocates push for stronger safeguards and extended public input.
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Trump dumps Biden environmental review for 3,244 oil and gas leases
Summary: The Trump administration will cancel a Biden-era environmental review for 3,244 federal oil and gas leases across seven western states, including Wyoming, issued between 2015 and 2020. This decision follows a decade-long legal and political battle over climate and health implications of drilling, with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) opting for alternative review processes to meet legal requirements. Industry groups argue the leases’ impacts have been adequately analyzed, while conservationists criticize the rollback, citing ongoing environmental and health concerns.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Apr. 7, 2025

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Valor

April 7, 2025 Edition

Oil prices continue to fall
Summary: Oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI briefly falling below $60 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Analysts warn that Trump’s tariffs could lead to industrial slowdowns, further depressing oil demand and potentially lowering prices. Major banks, including Goldman Sachs, have downgraded oil price forecasts, with WTI now projected to average $55 in 2026, reflecting growing recession risks and increasing supply from OPEC+.
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China halts U.S. LNG imports for longest since last trade war
Summary: China has not imported U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 60 days—the longest pause since the 400-day halt during the last U.S.-China trade war in 2020—amid escalating geopolitical tensions. As of now, no U.S. LNG shipments are en route to China, with analysts expecting the freeze to continue through 2025 due to China’s tariff hike from 15% to 49% on U.S. LNG. With ample inventories after a mild winter, Chinese buyers under long-term contracts are reselling U.S. LNG to Europe and Asia.
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ExxonMobil projects $900M Q1 boost, but crude prices threaten gains
Summary: ExxonMobil expects to report a $900 million profit increase in Q1 2025, reaching about $8.3 billion, driven by higher oil and gas prices and improved refining margins. However, falling crude prices—Brent dropping over 10% to around $65 per barrel—and weaker natural gas prices in Q2 could impact future earnings. To mitigate volatility, Exxon plans to invest $140 billion by 2030 into high-margin assets and achieve $7 billion in cost savings, aiming for an additional $20 billion in annual earnings and $30 billion in cash flow.
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BP CEO outlines strategy shift to boost oil, gas investment
Summary: BP’s CEO, Murray Auchincloss, announced a shift to prioritize oil and gas, increasing fossil fuel investments by 20% to $10 billion while reducing renewable energy funding by over $5 billion. This strategy aims to boost annual adjusted free cash flow by over 20% and achieve returns on average capital employed above 16% by 2027. The move is part of BP’s effort to reset its approach and drive higher shareholder value while managing energy transition risks.
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U.S. oil rig count jumps as gas rig count slides
Summary: The total U.S. oil and gas rig count fell by 2 to 590, down 30 from last year, with oil rigs increasing by 5 to 489, and gas rigs dropping by 7 to 96. Weekly U.S. crude production rose slightly to 13.580 million bpd, nearing the all-time high. Drilling activity in the Permian Basin fell by 3 rigs to 294, 23 fewer than last year, while the Eagle Ford count remained at 48. Oil prices slid sharply due to President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s production hike, with WTI dropping 7.69% to $61.80 per barrel.
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Trump administration to hold oil, gas lease sale in Gulf of Mexico
Summary: The Trump administration will hold an oil and gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, releasing a notice in June. This sale is part of a five-year leasing plan under Biden, which planned just three Gulf sales, angering the oil industry. The last sale in 2023 raised $382 million, but sales have been delayed by litigation over drilling’s impact on the Rice’s whale. Oil prices recently fell to $65 per barrel due to tariff concerns, further complicating energy companies’ decision to bid on the leases.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Mar. 31, 2025

Posted on March 31, 2025 by Valor

March 31, 2025 Edition

Oil inches up as investors await Trump’s actions on Russian oil, Iran
Summary: Oil prices edged up on Monday, with Brent crude rising 0.59% to $73.19 per barrel and WTI gaining 0.68% to $69.83, as investors reacted to President Trump’s threats of 25%-50% secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers and possible military action against Iran over its nuclear program. Despite initial declines, prices stabilized as analysts debated whether Trump would act on his threats, with UBS noting rising supply risks while IG suggested market skepticism was capping gains. Meanwhile, negotiations to restart Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline stalled due to unresolved payment and contract issues.
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Oil and gas execs reveal where they expect WTI oil price to be in the future
Summary: The first-quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey found that executives from 124 oil and gas firms expect WTI crude oil prices to average $68 per barrel in six months, $70 in a year, $74 in two years, and $82 in five years. The survey also revealed that firms require an average of $41 per barrel to cover operating expenses for existing wells, up from $39 last year, while the breakeven price to profitably drill new wells is $65 per barrel, ranging from $61 to $70 depending on the region. Large firms need $31 per barrel to cover operating expenses and $61 to profitably drill, while small firms require $44 and $66, respectively.
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US oil, gas rig count drops first time in 3 weeks – Baker Hughes
Summary: U.S. energy firms reduced the total oil and gas rig count by one to 592 for the first time in three weeks, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by two to 484, while gas rigs increased by one to 103, bringing the total rig count 5% lower than the same period last year. The Permian Basin saw the largest decline, losing three rigs and dropping to 297, the lowest level since February 2022.
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Peak Permian? Geology and water say we’re close
Summary: Some Permian Basin areas have hit geological limits, with the gas-to-oil ratio rising from 34% in 2014 to 40% in 2024, signaling production constraints. U.S. crude output is expected to reach 13.61 million bpd in 2025, but experts foresee a peak between 2027 and 2030. A high water-to-oil ratio—four barrels per barrel of oil—is also driving up costs, challenging long-term output.
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Trump’s 1st 2025 oil, gas leases net $40M from 34 parcels
Summary: The U.S. Interior Department reported nearly $40 million in revenue from oil and gas lease sales on public land during the first quarter of 2025, with 34 parcels covering 25,038 acres leased. The sales align with Trump’s Executive Order 14154, promoting American energy dominance, and revenue will be shared between the federal government and states including Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Nevada. These leases, governed by the National Environmental Policy Act, have a 10-year term with a 16.67% federal royalty rate.
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BP, Shell, and Exxon signal one thing: Oil isn’t going anywhere
Summary: BP, Shell, and Exxon are ramping up oil and gas investments, with BP increasing spending by 25% and Shell targeting 4-5% annual LNG sales growth through 2030. U.S. supermajors like Exxon and Chevron never pivoted away from hydrocarbons—Exxon plans an 18% production boost in five years, while Chevron expands in Kazakhstan and acquires Hess’s Guyana assets. Despite energy transition talks, major oil firms remain focused on fossil fuels, with TotalEnergies balancing diversification while achieving a 14.8% return on capital.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Mar. 24, 2025

Posted on March 24, 2025 by Valor

March 24, 2025 Edition

Oil prices start the week with a dip
Summary: Crude oil prices declined at the start of the week, with Brent at $71.92 and WTI at $68.06 per barrel, despite two prior weekly gains fueled by U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ production quota compliance efforts. OPEC+ plans to proceed with a modest April output rollback of 138,000 barrels daily, amid concerns that a potential Ukraine-Russia ceasefire could boost Russian exports and pressure prices further, despite lingering doubts about member compliance with compensation cuts. Speculators increased Brent crude net long positions by nearly 53,000 lots to 206,138, driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and short covering, according to ING analysts.
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New oil projects set to flood market in 2025
Summary: Global oil supply is set to rise by nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the largest increase in a decade, driven by major projects in Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, provided oil prices remain above $50 per barrel. However, demand uncertainty persists, with supply overhang projections ranging from 100,000 bpd (EIA) to 600,000 bpd (IEA), as China’s post-pandemic import normalization and sluggish global demand growth raise concerns. Despite this, IEA head Fatih Birol stressed the ongoing need for oil and gas investments to counter field declines and maintain energy security, signaling a shift from previous transition-focused narratives.
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Natural gas continues to see overhead resistance
Summary: Natural gas prices have seen a slight increase but continue to face strong resistance near the key $4 level, which has historically served as both support and resistance. If prices drop below Friday’s lows, they could decline further toward $3.50, signaling a bearish trend, whereas a breakout above $4 may push prices toward $4.20. Market volatility remains high, and seasonal factors such as rising temperatures and increasing storage levels are expected to reduce demand, contributing to further downward pressure. Given the cyclical nature of the market, traders should closely monitor storage reports and demand trends in the coming weeks.
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US oil and gas rigs rise for first time in three weeks, Baker Hughes says
Summary: U.S. energy firms added one oil and gas rig this week, bringing the total to 593, though the count remains 31 rigs (5%) lower than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by one to 486, while gas rigs increased by two to 102, with Oklahoma’s rig count reaching 53, the highest since May 2023. Despite forecasts of lower crude prices in 2025, the EIA projects U.S. crude output to rise to 13.6 million barrels per day and gas production to increase to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day, driven by a projected 91% increase in gas prices.
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AI boom favors natural gas over coal
Summary: The AI-driven surge in electricity demand is prolonging the operation of some U.S. coal plants, but natural gas remains the primary beneficiary of this growth. Despite President Trump’s efforts to boost coal power, analysts expect natural gas to capture most of the increasing energy needs due to its flexibility and reliability. The EIA projects a 6% rise in U.S. coal generation in 2025 due to higher natural gas prices but anticipates an 8% decline in 2026, while natural gas is expected to maintain steady growth amid rising AI-related power consumption.
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Trump open to extending Chevron’s oil license in Venezuela
Summary: President Trump is considering extending Chevron’s license to produce oil in Venezuela, despite previously stating he would reverse a Biden-era decision allowing its operations there. The Treasury Department had given Chevron until April 3 to wind down activities, but during a White House meeting with CEO Mike Wirth and other oil executives, Trump showed openness to an extension. The administration is also exploring financial penalties for countries engaging in business with Venezuela, while Chevron maintains compliance with U.S. laws and sanctions in its operations.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Mar. 17, 2025

Posted on March 17, 2025March 17, 2025 by Valor

March 17, 2025 Edition

Oil’s oversupply spiral: can prices stay above $60?
Summary: The IEA reports that global crude supply is exceeding demand by 600,000 bpd, pushing oil prices toward the $60-$80 per barrel range, with U.S. production expected to rise by 400,000 bpd to 13.6 million bpd in 2025. Overproduction by OPEC+ members, including Kazakhstan exceeding its quota by 299,000 bpd, and planned U.S. refinery shutdowns of 400,000 bpd are contributing to the surplus. While some analysts predict a prolonged price slump, others caution that demand surprises and inaccurate forecasts could trigger a market correction.
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U.S. natural gas hits 2-week low on record output
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures fell to a two-week low at $4.076 per mmBtu due to record production of 105.9 bcfd, negative Waha Hub prices caused by pipeline maintenance, and mild weather forecasts through April. Despite this, gas stockpiles remain 12% below normal after extreme winter demand, while LNG exports hit a new high of 15.7 bcfd in March. Gas prices at the Dutch TTF and Japan Korea Marker stand at $13 and $14 per mmBtu, respectively, as the U.S. remains the world’s top LNG supplier.
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Oil prices rise after U.S. vows ‘unrelenting’ attacks on Houthis
Summary: Oil prices rose on Monday as U.S. strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels heightened supply risks, with WTI crude gaining 1% to $67.84 per barrel and Brent crude rising 1% to $71.30 per barrel. The U.S. pledged continued attacks until Houthi aggression ceases, while China’s new economic stimulus plan further supported crude prices. However, gains were limited by expectations of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, which could bring more Russian oil back to the market.
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Goldman Sachs cuts oil price outlook amid oversupply fears
Summary: Goldman Sachs cut its Brent crude forecast for December 2025 by $5 to $71 per barrel, citing slower U.S. economic growth and increasing OPEC+ supply. Analysts warned that tariffs from President Trump’s trade policies could further weaken demand, while OPEC+ may reverse its planned 138,000 bpd supply increase if prices decline. The bank joins other major commodity traders and the IEA in predicting an oversupplied market, despite recent calls for more oil and gas investment.
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U.S. oil, gas rig count unchanged this week
Summary: The U.S. oil and gas rig count remained steady at 592 for the week ending March 14, down 37 rigs (6%) from a year ago, with oil rigs increasing by one to 487 and gas rigs decreasing by one to 100. Despite a projected 73% rise in gas prices in 2025, analysts expect crude prices to remain stable, while the EIA forecasts record-breaking U.S. oil and gas production through 2026. Industry executives at CERAWeek highlighted growing LNG and power demand but warned that infrastructure constraints could challenge future expansion.
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AI to fuel bumper year for M&A in US power sector
Summary: Mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. power sector have surged in 2025, with 27 deals worth $36.4 billion in the first two months, led by Constellation Energy’s $16.4 billion acquisition of Calpine. The boom is driven by soaring electricity demand from AI data centers, with power companies’ stocks rising between 82% and 220% since early 2024, enabling larger deals. Despite regulatory uncertainties, supply chain constraints, and potential labor shortages, institutional investors and private equity firms continue to invest heavily in power infrastructure, with $334 billion in undeployed capital at the end of 2024.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Mar. 10, 2025

Posted on March 10, 2025March 10, 2025 by Valor

March 10, 2025 Edition

Oil prices dip as tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge
Summary: Oil prices declined on Monday, with Brent crude falling 44 cents to $69.92 per barrel and WTI dropping 40 cents to $66.64, marking WTI’s seventh consecutive weekly loss—the longest streak since November 2023. Market uncertainty stems from U.S. tariff policies affecting major oil suppliers like Canada, Mexico, and China, while potential sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil add volatility. Investors await monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC for demand and supply forecasts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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States ease laws, offer incentives to attract power plants
Summary: U.S. states are accelerating efforts to build new power plants amid surging electricity demand driven by AI data centers and manufacturing incentives, with some offering financial incentives and deregulating approval processes. Pennsylvania is considering leaving the PJM regional grid to expedite projects, while states like Indiana, Michigan, and Louisiana explore nuclear energy, and Missouri and Kansas compete to attract investments in natural gas plants. Lawmakers and consumer advocates warn that shifting financial risks to ratepayers and deregulating utilities could lead to higher costs and inefficiencies.
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U.S. oil, gas rig count falls
Summary: The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 592 this week, down 30 from the same time last year, with oil rigs remaining at 486 (down 18) and gas rigs decreasing to 101 (down 14). In the Permian Basin, rig count declined by 1 to 304—9 fewer than last year—while Eagle Ford added 1 rig to reach 49, though that’s still 3 less than the previous year. Meanwhile, US crude production averaged 13.508 million barrels per day for the week ending February 28, 2025, with WTI trading at $67.17 per barrel (up 1.22%) and Brent at $70.41 per barrel (up 1.37%).
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“Drill, baby, drill”: natural gas producers eye a boom
Summary: Rising U.S. natural gas prices, up 160% in a year to $4.26 per MMBtu, are driving producers to increase output after months of curtailments in 2024. Depleted inventories—now 25% lower than last year and 11% below the five-year average—along with surging LNG exports and new export facilities like Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, are fueling demand. In response, U.S. dry gas production rose 2.1% to 106.2 Bcf/d, and the gas rig count increased by three to 102 rigs as producers capitalize on higher prices.
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U.S. energy chief to seek $20 billion to refill oil reserve, Bloomberg reports
Summary: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimates it will take $20 billion and several years to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to near capacity, following the sale of nearly 300 million barrels under the Biden administration, which pushed reserves to a 40-year low of 395 million barrels. The SPR, created in 1975 and capable of storing 727 million barrels, would still fall short of full capacity even if the full amount were allocated, as current oil prices would only allow the purchase of about 301 million barrels. While no formal budget request has been made to Congress, the Energy Department acknowledges the challenge of securing such funding amid other priorities.
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New report shows U.S.A oil and gas wages by industry
Summary: TIPRO’s latest State of Energy report shows that in 2024, Crude Petroleum Extraction paid the highest average wage at $227,080—up $4,389 from 2023—while Natural Gas Extraction and Petroleum Refineries paid $176,800 and $172,191 respectively. The national average wage across the U.S. oil and gas industry reached $81,808 in 2024, and direct employment grew to 2,055,516 jobs, an increase of 10,694 from 2023. The report, now in its 10th edition, provides a detailed analysis of wage growth and employment trends across key sectors in the U.S. energy industry.
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