Industry Newsletter Archives

Valor | Energy Connection – July 6, 2026

Posted on July 6, 2026 by Valor

July 6, 2026 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover
Summary: OPEC+ agreed to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, adding to prior hikes that increased targets by nearly 800,000 bpd from April through July. Total group output had fallen from 42.77 million bpd in February to 33.13 million bpd in May before beginning a partial recovery in June. Meanwhile, Brent crude traded near $72 per barrel, down from peaks over $120, as the seven core members work to unwind the remaining 379,000 bpd of a 1.65 million bpd cut enacted in 2023.
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Citi: Oil could sink to $60 as Hormuz traffic normalizes
Summary: Citigroup projects Brent crude prices could plunge to $60 or $65 a barrel by the end of the year as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes. Other Wall Street firms have also adjusted their forecasts downward following the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Goldman Sachs predicts a global oil surplus of roughly 3 million barrels per day next year, noting that a projected global SPR rebuilding of just over 1 million barrels per day would still leave a 2 million barrel surplus.
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Execs predict where Henry Hub price will land in future
Summary: In the second quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, executives from 97 firms projected mean Henry Hub gas prices of $3.35 per MMBtu in six months, $3.45 in one year, $3.75 in two years, and $4.14 in five years. For the end of 2026, 123 executives forecasted an average price of $3.36 per MMBtu, within a range of $2.00 to $4.65, while the average spot price during the survey period was $3.15. Meanwhile, reports noted the August contract closed at $3.275 on Tuesday, up 9.4 cents or 3.0 percent.
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U.S. energy firms add rigs for third week in a row, says Baker Hughes
Summary: The total U.S. oil and gas rig count increased by seven to 580 for the week ending July 2, a figure that is 41 rigs or 7.6% higher than last year’s level. Baker Hughes reported that oil rigs climbed by five to 445, gas rigs rose by one to 126, and miscellaneous rigs grew by one to nine. This activity follows consecutive annual rig count declines of 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 7% in 2025, though the EIA projects 2026 crude output will reach 13.7 million bpd and gas output will hit 111.0 bcfd.
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OPEC oil production jumps, but Gulf supply is still far from normal
Summary: OPEC oil production rebounded sharply in June as 11 member nations produced 19.43 million barrels per day, marking a monthly increase of 3.3 million bpd. This rise followed the lifting of a naval blockade under a 60-day agreement, though output remained well below quotas and pre-war tanker traffic levels. Meanwhile, global supply pressures persist as the United States posted record crude production of nearly 14 million barrels per day, and the UAE exported record volumes from its own storage.
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Shell offloads stake in U.S. Gulf production hub
Summary: Shell is selling its 50 percent ownership in the Na Kika platform and 100 percent in the Coulomb tieback to Ridgewood Energy and Talos Energy for $1.7 billion. In 2025, the Na Kika platform contributed 37,000 boe a day to Shell’s production and accounted for 4.3 million boe of proven reserves, while Coulomb accounted for 7.2 million boe. In a separate U.S. divestment, Shell completed the transfer of Jiffy Lube International, which comprised 6.5 percent of its regional footprint, for $1.3 billion.
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XRG expands rio Grande LNG stake, now invested across all five trains
Summary: XRG acquired an additional 7.6% equity interest in Trains 4 and 5 of the Rio Grande LNG project in Texas from Global Infrastructure Partners. This expands on its prior purchase of an indirect 11.7% stake in Phase 1, which includes Trains 1 through 3. The NextDecade-operated facility has roughly 30 MMtpa of liquefaction capacity under construction, with Trains 4 and 5 adding 12 MMtpa, and it is expected to receive first gas in the second half of 2026 before production begins in 2027.
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Valor | Energy Connection – June 29, 2026

Posted on June 29, 2026June 29, 2026 by Valor

June 29, 2026 Edition

Magnolia eyes $4 billion WildFire acquisition to expand Eagle Ford position
Summary: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. has emerged as the front-runner to acquire closely held WildFire Energy for more than $4 billion to boost its presence in the Eagle Ford shale basin. Following this development, Magnolia shares fell 1.5% to $26.78 in New York trading Friday, giving the company an overall market value of around $5.1 billion. WildFire operates more than 2,000 wells with an equivalent output of over 50,000 net barrels of oil per day, and its management sold a previous firm for $1.9 billion.
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Hormuz oil exodus sets stage for chaotic rebalancing act: Bousso
Summary: Brent crude fell to around $73 a barrel after a conflict of over 100 days, while Gulf shut-in production declined to 9.6 million bpd by mid-June from 11.7 million bpd. Iran’s output could reach 3.3 million bpd by year-end, and oil flows briefly exceeded 20 million bpd despite incoming traffic showing only one tanker entering for every four that left. Additionally, global supply is forecast to fall by 3.9 million bpd in 2026 before rebounding by about 8 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd in 2027.
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U.S. pipeline giant eyes $5.5 billion deal to expand LNG reach
Summary: Natural gas giant Williams is in late-stage talks to acquire pipeline operator Momentum Midstream from EnCap Flatrock Midstream for an estimated $5.5 billion. Momentum Midstream operates about 4,000 miles of pipelines with 6 Bcf/d of system capacity, which includes the 250-mile NG3 pipeline that has a total capacity of 2.3 Bcf/d. The acquisition would expand Williams’ reach, which currently handles about one-third of U.S. natural gas and achieved a 25% year-over-year net income increase.
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U.S. natural gas drops on cooler outlooks as July contract expires
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures for July delivery settled 11.2 cents, or 3.3% lower, at $3.231/mmbtu on Nymex as the contract expired amid cooler weather forecasts. The more-actively-traded August delivery contract also ended lower, settling 1.6 cents, or 0.5% down, at $3.279/mmbtu at the Henry Hub. Daily BNEF data showed Lower-48 dry gas production on Friday at 112.6 bcf/day, an increase of 4.9% year-over-year, while total gas demand dropped 6.9% year-over-year to approximately 71.3 bcf/day.
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U.S. energy firms add most rigs in a week since June 2022, Baker Hughes says
Summary: The total U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by 10 to 573 in the week to June 26, up 26 rigs or 5% above last year’s level. Baker Hughes reported that oil rigs climbed by seven to 440, gas rigs increased by three to 125, and miscellaneous rigs held at eight. After past rig count declines of 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 7% in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that the total domestic crude output will expand to 13.7 million bpd while gas production jumps to 111.0 bcfd in 2026.
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ExxonMobil announces planned effective date for move to Texas
Summary: ExxonMobil announced that its planned move from New Jersey to Texas is expected to take effect on July 1, 2026. The company’s new publicly traded parent entity, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation, will be incorporated in Texas, marking another major corporate relocation tied to the state’s growing role as a headquarters hub for the energy sector.
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Oil prices climb as U.S.-Iran flare-up shakes market complacency
Summary: Oil prices moved higher early Monday as renewed geopolitical uncertainty brought global supply risks back into focus, with Brent and WTI both posting gains. The shift reflected concern that disruptions to shipping routes, infrastructure, or export flows could tighten an already sensitive market. Analysts noted that low inventories and limited spare capacity may leave crude prices exposed to volatility as markets assess whether recent tensions will affect broader supply and demand expectations.
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Valor | Energy Connection – June 22, 2026

Posted on June 22, 2026June 22, 2026 by Valor

June 22, 2026 Edition

U.S. natural gas prices at Waha turn positive for first time since February as pipeline constraints ease
Summary: U.S. spot natural gas prices at the Waha Hub turned positive at 42 cents per mmBtu after remaining below zero for a record 90 days in a row. Previously, prices averaged negative $2.19 per mmBtu so far in 2026, dropping below zero a record 99 times this year compared to a positive $1.15 average in 2025. Driven by rising summer gas demand, the Permian region’s gas output is projected to reach 30.1 billion cubic feet per day by November, supplying about a third of all fuel consumed in the U.S.
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Texas upstream employment rises by 4,100 jobs in May, TIPRO says
Summary: Texas’ upstream sector added 4,100 jobs in May, raising total employment to 197,500 positions as oilfield services gained 4,400 jobs and extraction dropped by 300. Industry hiring activity included 10,409 unique job postings, an increase of 6% from April, with Houston leading cities at 2,698 listings. Additionally, oil producers paid $677 million in production taxes, which is 64% above May 2025 levels, while natural gas producers paid $217 million as U.S. net exports hit a record 5.8 MMbpd.
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Hormuz reopens, but obstacles remain as oil markets seek path to normalcy
Summary: The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade and has reopened following a U.S.-Iran agreement, causing Brent crude to drop nearly 8% for the week to trade near $80/bbl. Kuwait expects its production to exceed 2 MMbpd within days, ADNOC instructed customers to resume loadings, and Iran began exporting millions of barrels of stranded crude oil. However, shipping traffic slowed Friday, and supertankers holding nearly 80 MMbbl of crude inside the Gulf await clearer conditions.
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Banks slash oil price forecasts after U.S.-Iran breakthrough
Summary: Following a U.S.-Iran peace deal to reopen Hormuz within 30 days, Morgan Stanley cut its third-quarter Brent price forecast to $90 per barrel from $100. Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter price forecast to $80 per barrel from $90 and its 2027 average to $75, predicting full tanker recovery by the end of July. Citi reduced its forecasts to $75 for the third quarter, $70 for the fourth quarter, and $65 for 2027, while Brent crude dropped to trade at $82.51 per barrel and WTI was at $80.23.
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U.S. energy firms add rigs for eighth time in nine weeks, says Baker Hughes
Summary: U.S. energy firms increased the total oil and gas rig count by one to 563 in the week ending June 18, representing a 2% rise of nine rigs compared to the same period last year. Baker Hughes reported that gas rigs grew by one to 122, while oil rigs remained steady at 433 and miscellaneous rigs held at eight. Following historical rig count drops of 20% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 7% in 2025, the EIA projects 2026 U.S. crude output will rise to 13.7 million bpd and gas output will reach 111.0 bcfd.
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IEA sees massive oil surplus in 2027 as Middle East supply returns
Summary: The International Energy Agency reports the global oil market could see a surplus of over 5 million barrels per day in 2027 if Middle East production recovers. This forecast projects global supply growth of 8 million barrels per day, which far outpaces the expected demand growth of 2 million barrels per day. The conflict previously blocked more than 14 million barrels per day, causing oil inventories to drop by 3.8 million barrels per day since late February and by 4.6 million barrels per day in May.
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Technological advances keep driving oilfield production up
Summary: Driven by technological advances, Permian Basin oil production increased by 430 percent from 2015 to 2025, though current shale recovery is just 5-10 percent for oil and 10-20 percent for gas. While total U.S. crude output reached 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, the U.S. EIA projects production easing to 13.5 million in 2026 and 13.3 million in 2027. Operators are deploying horizontal laterals extending three to four miles to raise unconventional oil recovery factors from 10 to 30 percent.
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Valor | Energy Connection – June 15, 2026

Posted on June 15, 2026June 22, 2026 by Valor

June 15, 2026 Edition

Oil prices plunge as U.S. and Iran reach deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Summary: Oil prices dropped in early Monday Asian trading after the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after more than 100 days of closure. Brent crude dropped 3.95% to $83.88 per barrel, and WTI fell 4.62% to $80.96 per barrel following announcement of the deal. A finalized memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day ceasefire period, the release of $24 billion in frozen funds, suspended oil sanctions, and a halt to producing nuclear weapons.
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U.S. natural gas prices hit three-week low on U.S.–Iran peace deal
Summary: U.S. natural gas prices fell 2% to around $3.0 per MMBtu, hitting a nearly three-week low after a U.S.–Iran peace deal was confirmed. The agreement will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, following its formal signing on June 19. Additional pressure stemmed from ample domestic supplies, with inventories rising to 2.686 trillion cubic feet, roughly 6% above the five-year average.
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Once an Arab oil embargo victim, US becomes world’s top oil exporter
Summary: The United States has become the world’s leading oil exporter for the third consecutive month, with crude and fuel shipments climbing to 10.5 million bpd in May. This ascendancy surpasses Russian exports of 7 million bpd and Saudi Arabian exports of 5.9 million bpd, a reversal from 2025 when Saudi Arabia led with 8.1 million bpd. The shift comes as U.S. output reaches 22 million bpd, allowing the country to supply 47% of its oil exports to Europe and 46% of its May exports to Asia this year.
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Pace of U.S. oil drilling inches up
Summary: The total active U.S. drilling rig count rose to 563, with oil rigs increasing by two to 433 while gas rigs fell by three to 121, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.799 million bpd for the week ending June 5, representing an increase of 371,000 bpd from a year ago as the completions crew count fell by two to 190. Concurrently, oil prices declined on Friday, with Brent crude falling 3.55% to $87.17 per barrel and WTI dropping 3.87% to trade at $84.32.
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Permian partnership reports $2.3 billion in regional investment and expanding economic impact
Summary: The Permian Strategic Partnership released reports highlighting its investment of $215 million since 2019, which helped leverage over $2.3 billion in regional impact across 22 counties. The region currently supports more than 940,000 U.S. jobs, accounts for over 44% of all active domestic drilling rigs, and contributed $114 billion to the U.S. balance of trade in 2025. By 2027, the basin is projected to supply nearly 50% of U.S. oil production, with jobs expanding to 1.16 million by 2050.
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Shell pauses $3 billion share buyback ahead of ARC acquisition vote
Summary: Shell pauses its $3 billion share buyback until July 14 due to securities laws tied to its pending $16.4 billion acquisition of ARC Resources. In April, Shell announced buying ARC in a deal paid 25% in cash and 75% in shares at a 20% premium, which is its biggest since 2016. The transaction requires a minimum of 66% support at ARC’s shareholder vote on July 14, and the company’s output consists of about 60% natural gas and 40% oil liquids near Shell’s Canadian fields feeding the LNG Canada plant.
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BP starts process to sell stakes in two Gulf of Mexico projects
Summary: British oil major BP has begun a process to sell minority stakes in its multi-billion dollar Kaskida and Tiber projects in the Gulf of Mexico. This action represents one of the first major strategic moves by new CEO Meg O’Neill, who assumed her role in April after the company chose to refocus its investments back onto oil and gas. Both projects are expected to have production capacities of 80,000 barrels of oil per day, with Kaskida starting in 2029 and Tiber commencing production in 2030.
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Valor | Energy Connection – June 8, 2026

Posted on June 8, 2026June 22, 2026 by Valor

June 8, 2026 Edition

Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?
Summary: Texas benefits from higher energy costs as it produced 5.8 mb/d of oil in 2025, accounting for 43% of total U.S. output. However, due to conflict-driven duration uncertainty, 73% of Dallas Fed Energy Survey respondents anticipate no more than 0.25 mb/d of additional production this year. While the average WTI spot price rose from $63 per barrel in early February 2026 to $106 by April 3, the oil and gas sector’s impact is muted by limited pipeline capacity and deep negative Waha natural gas prices.
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U.S. crude oil inventories in freefall: EIA
Summary: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 8.0 million barrels for the week ending May 29 to 433.7 million barrels, placing stockpiles 3% below the five-year average. Concurrently, total motor gasoline inventories rose by 3.4 million barrels while middle distillates increased by 1.5 million barrels. Driven by tightening supplies, Brent crude rose 2.30% to $98.24 per barrel and WTI climbed 2.27% to $95.99, while overall product demand averaged 20.4 million bpd, up 3.0% from last year.
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The three reasons why oil is staying below $100 a barrel
Summary: Oil prices remain in the mid-$90s due to optimism over a U.S.-Iran settlement and a sharp decline in Chinese oil demand, which JPMorgan reported fell by up to 9% or 1.5 mbd. Furthermore, global supply continues to expand as Saudi Arabia pumps through the East-West pipeline, the UAE fast-tracks a bypass line, and U.S. production grinds higher. This comes despite May marking crude’s largest monthly drop ever and the emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve draining by 8 to 9 million barrels per week.
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U.S. drillers continue to add oil rigs
Summary: The total active U.S. drilling rig count rose to 563, with oil rigs increasing by two to 431 while gas rigs fell by one to 124, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly U.S. crude oil production fell to an average of 13.707 million bpd, though this remains 299,000 bpd higher than last year, as completion crews grew by three to 192. Additionally, the Permian Basin rig count increased by two to 257 while oil prices declined, with Brent trading down 1.06% at $94.02 and WTI dropping 1.69% to $91.47.
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Natural Gas News: Forecast turns cautious as supply glut pressures futures
Summary: July Nymex natural gas futures settled 4.28% lower at $3.021 on Friday after failing to break past resistance between $3.387 and $3.396. The drop occurred as domestic production reached 110.4 bcf/d—1.7% above last year—and total inventories remained 5.7% above the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, weekly LNG export flows dropped 5.8% to 17.2 bcf/d due to terminal maintenance, offsetting an 8.4% increase in electricity output and a lighter-than-average weekly storage injection of 95 bcf.
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Delfin approves $5 billion FID for first U.S. floating LNG export vessel
Summary: Delfin Midstream sanctioned a $5 billion final investment decision for its first floating LNG vessel, Delfin FLNG 1, marking the first of its kind in the U.S. and the largest globally. The offshore vessel will export up to 4.4 million metric tons of LNG annually from Louisiana and is scheduled to begin production in 2030. Backed by Global Infrastructure Partners, the project holds broader U.S. energy authorization to ultimately export up to 13.2 million tonnes of LNG per year.
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War, gas prices, and AI are fueling a Texas pipeline boom
Summary: Driven by elevated oil prices and surging global gas demand, Permian Basin natural gas production has outpaced takeaway infrastructure, sinking spot prices below negative $9 per thousand cubic feet. To bridge this gap, three new pipeline projects will expand regional export capacity by 20% this year, with three more planned by 2029 to feed Gulf Coast LNG facilities and domestic AI data centers. These data centers are projected by ERCOT to add up to 360,000 megawatts of grid power demand by 2030.
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Valor | Energy Connection – June 1, 2026

Posted on June 1, 2026 by Valor

June 1, 2026 Edition

Kimbell expands Permian footprint with $147-million royalty acquisition
Summary: Kimbell Royalty Partners will buy Permian Basin mineral and royalty interests from Mesa Royalties for $147 million, funding 70% with equity and 30% in cash. The acquisition adds 711 net royalty acres across 15 counties, encompassing over 2,300 producing wells and 364 drilled but uncompleted wells and permits. The assets are projected to produce 1,390 boed, including 754 bopd of oil, over the next 12 months, boosting Kimbell’s total portfolio to more than 135,000 gross wells and 93 active rigs.
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Waha gas prices hit 16-week high as Permian pipeline constraints ease
Summary: Next-day spot natural gas prices at the Waha Hub reached a 16-week high of minus 46 cents/MMBtu on May 28, up from minus $2 on May 27, though remaining below zero for a record 78 consecutive days. Daily prices have averaged a negative $2.38/MMBtu so far in 2026, marking a record 87 negative days this year. While the EIA expects Permian output to hit 29.2 Bcf/d in July, upcoming pipeline capacity is projected to boost monthly production to a high of 30.2 Bcf/d by December.
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Record-low U.S. shale well backlog curbs fast output gains amid export surge
Summary: U.S. crude inventories fell 12.4 million barrels to 806.8 million for the week ending May 22, dropping 52 million barrels since the war began. High export demand has depleted the DUC shock absorber, which hit a record low of 4,972 in April after 14 consecutive months of decline. Completion crews rose 21% this year to 189, and while the EIA raised its 2026 output forecast to 13.65 million bpd, operators are adding rigs to rebuild the backlog, lifting the onshore oil rig count to 425.
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Oil drops 20% from 2026 peak on optimism over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks
Summary: Global oil prices tumbled around 20% from their 2026 peaks, with Brent crude falling nearly 19% in May to $92.56, while WTI futures dropped 16.5% month-to-date to $87.18. The declines follow a 60-day memorandum of understanding that is mostly agreed upon to pause hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which held 20% of global energy supply. Meanwhile, Iranian crude loadings for May fell below 0.3 million bpd from April’s 1.5 million bpd average as missile strikes continue in the Gulf.
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Supermajor warns oil prices could hit $160 within weeks
Summary: Global oil inventories dropped by a record 8.7 million bpd in May as the closed Strait of Hormuz continues to block 12 to 13 million bpd. JPMorgan calculated that out of 8.4 billion barrels in global stocks, only 0.8 billion are realistically available without causing system stress. While oil currently trades between $90 and $110, Exxon models show Brent could spike to $150–$160 within weeks once the operational floor is hit, triggering an eventual demand destruction benchmark of 5.5 mbd.
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U.S. drillers add more rigs in response to higher prices
Summary: The total active U.S. drilling rig count rose to 562, driven by a four-rig increase in oil rigs to 429 while gas rigs held steady at 125, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly crude oil production averaged 13.702 million bpd, sitting 160,000 bpd under the record high, as completion crews rose by five to 184 and Permian rigs increased by five to 255. Oil prices fell on deal rumors, with Brent trading down 1.84% to $91.99 and WTI down 1.05% to $87.85, losing $12 and $10 weekly respectively.
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Forecasts for above-average U.S. temps boost Nat-Gas prices
Summary: July Nymex natural gas closed up 0.15% on Friday, hitting a 2.5-month nearest-futures high due to forecasts for above-normal U.S. temperatures for June 8–12. While the EIA raised its 2026 dry gas production forecast to 110.61 bcf/d, current lower-48 demand fell 1.9% year-over-year to 67.7 bcf/d alongside flat rig counts at 125. Global constraints remain supportive as LNG terminal net flows rose 2.1% weekly to 18.5 bcf/d and inventories rose by 92 bcf, coming in below the 96 bcf expected build.
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Valor | Energy Connection – May 18, 2026

Posted on May 18, 2026May 18, 2026 by Valor

May 18, 2026 Edition

Permian gas glut means producers are paying buyers to haul it away
Summary: Permian Basin natural gas prices hit an all-time low of -$9.60/mmBtu on April 24 as pipeline capacity failed to keep pace with production. While U.S. futures slipped 10% since the Iran conflict began, European and Asian prices jumped roughly 40% and over 50% respectively, shielding the U.S. economy from global energy shocks. Storage inventories sit 7.7% above the five-year average, though five new pipelines will add 11 bcf/d of capacity by late 2028 as 2026 dry gas output targets 110.61 bcf/d.
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Phillips 66 announces Zeus Gas Plant and a third Coastal Bend Fractionator
Summary: Phillips 66 is moving forward with its 300 MMcf/d Zeus Gas Plant in the Permian and a third 100 MBD Coastal Bend Fractionator in Robstown, Texas, with both projects slated to be online in 2028. The Zeus facility will include the new 45-mile Midland Express Pipeline, which is designed to integrate gathering systems and move up to 230 MMcf/d of wellhead gas. Funded within a $2.0 billion to $2.5 billion capital budget, the projects align with plans to reduce debt to $17 billion by year-end 2027.
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High crude prices expected to accelerate M&A deals
Summary: First-quarter M&A activity reached $38 billion, hitting a two-year quarterly high before slowing in March due to price volatility. The quarter’s value was driven by corporate consolidation, including a $25 billion Devon and Coterra merger, bringing the six-month total over $60 billion. Transaction counts dropped to a post-2020 low with only eight deals over $100 million, but current high crude prices are expected to supercharge a rebound in private sales and asset values.
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U.S. oil rig count jumps amid rising crude prices
Summary: The total U.S. rig count rose to 551 as active oil rigs increased by five to 415, while gas rigs fell by one to 128, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly crude oil production grew to an average of 13.710 million bpd, while completion crews rose by five to 179 and Permian rigs increased by four to 246. Oil prices climbed with the Strait of Hormuz closed, as Brent traded up 3.57% at $109.50 and WTI rose 4.23% to $105.50, marking respective week-over-week gains of $9 and $10 per barrel.
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Texas oil regulator praises record port activity, rising output
Summary: The Port of Corpus Christi handled 54.5 million tons of cargo in Q1 2026, marking its strongest first quarter ever and surpassing Q1 2025 by 6.1%. Concurrently, Diamondback Energy is immediately increasing oil output above 520,000 bpd—3% over its initial guidance—by running five completion crews and adding two to three drilling rigs. For February 2026, Texas reported preliminary volumes of 117,594,204 barrels of crude oil and 965 billion cubic feet of natural gas across the state.
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U.S. industrial natural gas consumption expected to hit records in 2026 and 2027
Summary: U.S. industrial natural gas demand is forecast to reach record highs, rising by 1.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) in 2026 and 1.7% (0.4 Bcf/d) in 2027 from a record baseline of 23.6 Bcf/d in 2025. This gradual growth is driven by a projected rise in the manufacturing index of 1.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, which outpaces ongoing facility efficiency gains. Demand follows a seasonal pattern, peaking at 26.1 Bcf/d in January 2026 and a forecast 26.7 Bcf/d in January 2027, while dropping to 22.6 Bcf/d in June.
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Natural Gas News: June futures break 50-day MA as summer heat builds
Summary: June NYMEX natural gas futures traded near $3.00 on Friday after breaking above the 50-day moving average at $2.943 and the swing top at $2.945, targeting $3.107. The rally was fueled by an EIA storage report showing an 85 Bcf injection, below the 91 Bcf estimate, though inventories remain 6.5% above the five-year average. U.S. dry gas production holds at 109.7 Bcf/d, up 3.2% year-over-year, which serves as a price ceiling, while LNG export terminal feedgas flows reached 17.5 Bcf/d last week.
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Valor | Energy Connection – May 11, 2026

Posted on May 11, 2026May 15, 2026 by Valor

May 11, 2026 Edition

Oil prices rise after Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, but US stocks hold steady
Summary: Brent crude climbed more than 2% to $104 and WTI rose similarly after the United States and Iran failed to reach agreement on a peace proposal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and global energy supplies tight. Iran’s proposal sought an immediate end to hostilities, control over the Strait, and a lifting of the naval blockade — terms that fell short of what both sides required to end the conflict. The Strait has remained effectively closed since early March, keeping an estimated 9–10 million barrels per day offline and WTI well above Permian breakeven levels. Upcoming talks in Beijing may cap further gains as markets monitor whether China can influence a path toward reopening the Strait.
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Viper Energy buying Riverbend interests for $522 million
Summary: Viper Energy will acquire equity interests in Riverbend Oil & Gas IX for $522 million, consisting of $337 million in cash and 3.7 million Class A common shares. The deal includes 3,064 net royalty acres across the Midland and Delaware basins, with 75% overlapping Viper’s current position and operated by firms like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips. This acquisition is expected to add 1,000 barrels of oil per day to Viper’s 2026 production guidance, which currently ranges from 64,500 to 66,500 bpd.
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Top Permian producer adds rigs as oil rally holds
Summary: Diamondback Energy is raising its 2026 oil production target to 520,000+ bpd and total output to 972,000+ boe/d, breaking from the industry’s capital-discipline playbook. The firm is immediately adding two to three drilling rigs and five fracking crews, increasing capital expenditures from $3.75 billion to $3.9 billion. This shift follows a first-quarter beat of 521,000 bpd, occurring alongside CapEx hikes from rivals like ConocoPhillips and a rise in the total U.S. rig count to 547 as of May 1.
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ExxonMobil leads Permian growth outlook for 2026
Summary: An East Daley Analytics review of 14 public operators indicates Permian Basin oil production will grow by 183,000 barrels per day, or 2.7%, in 2026. ExxonMobil leads this outlook with a projected increase of 113,000 bpd as it utilizes its 1.5 million acres to reach a long-term goal of 2 million bpd by 2030. While Permian Resources and Occidental forecast growth of 6% and 3.6% respectively, most public firms maintain capital discipline, delaying the impact of new drilling on regional pipelines.
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Gas prices keep rising, but do big oil companies plan to drill more? Not so far
Summary: Major oil companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil are maintaining a “steady as she goes” strategy, sticking to pre-war production plans despite crude prices hovering above $100. A Dallas Fed survey shows executives expect U.S. output to increase by no more than 250,000 barrels per day this year — a small fraction of the estimated 9–10 million barrels per day currently offline due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. For Permian mineral owners, that production discipline at elevated prices is a constructive signal — restrained supply growth with WTI above $100 is historically the environment that supports strong royalty revenue.
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U.S. drillers add oil and gas rigs for third week in a row, says Baker Hughes
Summary: U.S. energy firms increased the total rig count by one to 548 in the week ending May 8, marking a three-week streak of gains, though the count remains 5% below last year’s levels. Oil rigs rose by two to 410, while gas rigs fell by one to 129, as energy firms continue focusing on shareholder returns following a 7% rig decline in 2025. Despite rising prices, the EIA projects 2026 crude output will slide to 13.5 million bpd from 13.6 million bpd, while gas output grows to 109.6 bcfd with a 4% price rise.
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U.S., U.K. Big Oil & Gas Sees Mixed Q1 Results Amid Mideast War
Summary: First-quarter profits for four global supermajors fell to a collective $15.3 billion, a $2.1 billion decrease from 2025 and 52% below the record $31.7 billion set in 2023. Earnings for U.S.-based ExxonMobil and Chevron sank 45% and 37% respectively, driven largely by nearly $6.8 billion in combined derivative timing effects tied to the Strait closure — not operational underperformance. Critically, both companies grew domestic production, with Chevron’s U.S. upstream output rising 24% to over 2 million BOE/d and ExxonMobil increasing U.S. output to just under 1.6 million bpd — signaling a strong earnings rebound once Hormuz supply flows normalize.
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Valor | Energy Connection – May 4, 2026

Posted on May 4, 2026 by Valor

May 4, 2026 Edition

Oil pares gains after U.S. says two vessels crossed Strait of Hormuz
Summary: Brent crude rose 1.9% to $110.22 and WTI gained 0.5% to $102.41 after the U.S. Navy reported two destroyers entered the Gulf amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Prices earlier spiked to $114.30 following reports of an attack on a U.S. warship, though Central Command denied the claim while investigating a drone strike on a UAE tanker. On Sunday, OPEC+ set June output targets 188,000 barrels per day higher, marking a third monthly increase despite ongoing supply disruptions in the Gulf region.
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Permian output rises to record levels while flaring falls, report shows
Summary: A TIPRO report reveals that U.S. flaring intensity fell 45% since 2019 while production rose 8%, with the Permian basin seeing a 62% intensity decline. Texas annual production surpassed 2 billion barrels for the first time, as the Permian produced 6.3 MMbpd, nearly half of the total U.S. output. Between 2023 and 2024, Permian output grew 6% while flared volumes fell 4%, a trend supported by new pipeline projects like Matterhorn Express, despite a minor year-over-year intensity rise in 2024.
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U.S. natural gas futures climb as output falls, LNG exports surge
Summary: June gas futures rose 1.3% to $2.804/mmBtu as average Lower 48 output fell to 109.8 bcfd in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. Waha Hub prices in West Texas remained negative for a record 60 consecutive days, averaging -$2.17/mmBtu so far in 2026 due to persistent Permian pipeline constraints. While gas demand is projected to slide to 100 bcfd next week, U.S. LNG export flows hit a record 18.8 bcfd in April, helping to reduce the inventory surplus to 7% above normal from 8% the previous week.
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U.S. oil drillers see modest uptick in activity
Summary: The total U.S. rig count rose to 547 this week, with oil rigs increasing by one to 408 and gas rigs rising by one to 130, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly crude oil production remained steady at 13.586 million bpd, while the number of well-completion crews grew by four to 169 as the Eagle Ford rig count reached 43. Despite oil prices falling on Friday to $108.30 for Brent and $101.90 for WTI amid hope for an Iran deal, WTI prices remain up approximately $8 per barrel over the previous week.
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ExxonMobil Q1 earnings beat estimates on higher upstream production
Summary: ExxonMobil reported first-quarter 2026 earnings of $1.16 per share, beating estimates by 8.4% as total revenues rose 2.4% year-over-year to $85,138 million. Net upstream production averaged 4,594 koebd, supported by liquids growth in Guyana and the Permian, though results included a $706 million identified item from Middle East disruptions and $3,883 million in unfavorable timing effects. The company distributed $9.2 billion to shareholders and reaffirmed plans for $20 billion in share repurchases.
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Natural gas and LNG exports to hit record highs through 2027
Summary: U.S. LNG exports reached 17.9 Bcf/d in March, an 8% increase over previous forecasts, as the price spread between Henry Hub and Europe widened by 83% to $14.89/MMBtu following disruptions in Qatar. Full-year 2026 exports are projected at 17.0 Bcf/d, supported by 0.9 Bcf/d of new capacity from Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass Train 1. Marketed production is expected to rise 2% in 2026, keeping storage 3% above average at 1,900 Bcf, while Henry Hub prices are forecast to average $3.10/MMBtu.
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SM Energy closes $950 million South Texas asset sale
Summary: SM Energy Company completed the $950 million sale of specific South Texas assets, generating approximately $900 million in net proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce leverage. The transaction marks a major step toward the firm’s goal of exceeding $1 billion in total divestitures as it optimizes its portfolio following a recent merger with Civitas Resources. CEO Beth McDonald noted the sale advances 2026 strategic priorities, focusing capital on high-return, advantaged assets.
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Valor | Energy Connection – Apr. 27, 2026

Posted on April 27, 2026April 27, 2026 by Valor

April 27, 2026 Edition

U.S. natural gas falls to lowest since late 2024 on oversupply
Summary: May NYMEX natural gas futures fell 3.48% to their lowest settlement since late 2024, driven by inventories 7.1% above the five-year seasonal average. Lower-48 dry gas production reached 110.4 bcf/day, a 3.7% year-over-year increase, while West Texas spot prices slipped into negative territory due to pipeline bottlenecks. While domestic stocks are 7.4% higher than last year, European benchmarks remain over 37% above 2025 levels as global markets face supply disruptions from the war in Iran.
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Shell to buy Canadian shale company for $14 billion, in what would be oil giant’s biggest acquisition in 10 years
Summary: Shell has agreed to buy Calgary-based ARC Resources for $13.6 billion, adding 370,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day to its portfolio. The acquisition of 1.5 million net acres in the Montney formation is expected to lift Shell’s production compound annual growth rate to 4% through 2030, up from the previous 1% target. The deal includes $3.4 billion in cash and $10.2 billion in shares, with Shell assuming $2.8 billion in net debt and leases while maintaining its 50% cash flow distribution policy.
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Crude oil hovers near $110 as Iran war peace talks lose momentum. What are experts saying?
Summary: Global oil prices rose nearly 2% on April 27 as U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled following the cancellation of a U.S. diplomatic visit to Islamabad. Brent crude climbed 2.05% to $107.49, while WTI advanced 1.88% to $96.17, following a week where benchmarks gained up to 17%. Analysts warn that if diplomatic progress remains elusive through April, prolonged restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20 million barrels per day—could push Brent prices toward a peak of $150 per barrel.
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Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast yet again
Summary: Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter price outlook to $90 for Brent and $83 for WTI as Brent traded at $106.68 amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations. Analysts estimate Middle East production losses at 14.5 million barrels per day, creating a supply shock they warn is unsustainable without sharper demand destruction. Global demand is projected to decline by 1.7 million barrels daily this quarter, with ING noting that prices must rise further to address a persistent 13 million b/d shortfall.
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U.S. oil drillers scale back as global supply crunch continues
Summary: The total U.S. rig count rose to 544 this week, though active oil rigs slipped by three to 407 while gas rigs increased by four to 129, according to Baker Hughes. Weekly crude production fell to 13.585 million bpd, remaining 277,000 bpd below the record high, as the Frac Spread Count dropped by six to 165 crews. Despite Friday’s slight dip with Brent at $104.80 and WTI at $93.96, prices remain up significantly week-over-week as the Strait of Hormuz stoppage continues to stifle global oil flows.
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Shaletech Report: Permian activity remains steady with growth through efficiencies
Summary: Permian Basin oil production is projected to grow moderately in 2026, with ExxonMobil leading at a 12.5% increase to 1.8 MMboed. While rig counts remain flat, operators are driving gains through technology, such as “Triple-Frac” and simul-frac techniques. Natural gas output is expected to reach 28 Bcfd, though Waha prices hit negative $9/Mcfg in March due to takeaway bottlenecks. Strategic shifts include Chevron’s 2.5-GW data center power project and Devon Energy’s merger with Coterra.
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Trump signs memos to boost us fossil-fuel production for ‘defense readiness’
Summary: President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to expand domestic oil, coal, and gas production, citing an “inadequate” energy supply as a national security threat. The memos direct the Energy Secretary to use financial instruments to enable projects aimed at averting industrial resource shortfalls amid the Iran war. This action follows a $75 million campaign contribution from the industry and comes as the USDA predicts a 3.6% rise in food prices and increased costs for gas and fertilizer.
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