July 14, 2025 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- Oil, gas activity contracted in Q2 on higher US steel tariffs, Dallas Fed survey shows
- Summary: A Dallas Fed survey showed oil and gas activity in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico contracted slightly in Q2 2025, largely due to President Trump doubling steel import tariffs to 50%. As a result, nearly half of executives expect to drill fewer wells in 2025, with 27% of firms citing the 50% tariff hike as a cause for drilling slightly fewer wells than planned. Looking ahead, over half expect less customer demand, while companies forecast a year-end 2025 WTI oil price of $68 a barrel and a Henry Hub gas price of $3.66 per MMBtu.
- Read more
- North America adds more rigs week on week
- Summary: According to a July 11 Baker Hughes report, North America’s total rig count rose by nine to 699 for the week, a gain driven entirely by a surge in Canadian drilling activity. Canada added 11 rigs (10 for oil, 1 for gas) to reach a total of 162, which more than offset a two-rig drop in the U.S., where the count fell to 537, with oil rigs down one to 424. Despite the weekly gain, the total North American count is down 74 rigs year-over-year, and J.P. Morgan analysts noted that U.S. supply growth has started to slow as a result.
- Read more
- Mixed signals for crude prices
- Summary: Conflicting signals caused oil prices to gyrate, with WTI consolidating between $64-$68.94 and Brent between $66.35-$70.70 for the past two weeks. Bearish factors included a 7.1 million barrel U.S. inventory gain, OPEC+’s larger-than-expected 548,000 b/d August output hike, and an IEA forecast that supply will outpace demand. These were offset by new geopolitical risks from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and OPEC’s own increased global demand outlook, creating significant market volatility.
- Read more
- US natural gas storage projected to hit three-year low in October
- Summary: Analysts estimate U.S. natural gas storage will end the summer injection season on Oct 31, 2025, at a three-year low of 3.797 trillion cubic feet (tcf), compared to 2024’s eight-year high. This projected level of 3.797 tcf is down from 3.938 tcf at the end of the 2024 summer season but remains just slightly above the five-year average of 3.782 tcf. Looking ahead, these stockpiles are then forecast to continue falling to a four-year low of 1.509 tcf by the end of the winter withdrawal season on March 31, 2026.
- Read more
- OPEC forecasts strong third-quarter demand and a tight market
- Summary: OPEC’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, stated that OPEC expects “very strong” oil demand in Q3 2025, which will lead to a tight supply-demand balance for the rest of the year. This forecast, which anticipates 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of year-on-year demand growth for 2025, is why eight OPEC+ nations are bringing barrels back to the market. OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook projects global demand averaging 105 million bpd this year, rising to 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and reaching a high of 111.6 million bpd by 2029.
- Read more
- BP forecasts stronger oil trading and refining for the second quarter
- Summary: For Q2 2025, BP projects stronger oil trading and higher refining margins, a forecast that contrasts with rival Shell, which expects “significantly lower” trading results. BP’s refining marker margin is projected to average $21.1 a barrel, up from $15.2 in Q1, and realized refining margins are expected to be between $300 million and $500 million. In comparison, Shell’s indicative margin is just $8.9 per barrel, though both giants expect higher upstream production quarter-on-quarter.
- Read more
- BP ratchets-up oil and gas output after renewables retreat
- Summary: BP expects slightly higher Q2 2025 oil and gas output as it refocuses on fossil fuels but warns that lower commodity prices will pressure profits for the quarter. The average Brent crude price fell to $67.88 a barrel from $75.73 in Q1, a drop expected to impact oil results by up to $800 million and its gas segment by up to $300 million. This negative impact is partly offset by its customers business, which expects a $300-$500 million benefit from higher refining margins, while net debt is seen falling from $27 billion.
- Read more
Contact Valor Today
Contact us today if you need help outsourcing your oil and gas operations.
The information provided by Valor in this blog is for general informational purposes only, not to provide specific recommendations or legal or tax-related advice. The blog/website should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.