March 31, 2025 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- Oil inches up as investors await Trump’s actions on Russian oil, Iran
- Summary: Oil prices edged up on Monday, with Brent crude rising 0.59% to $73.19 per barrel and WTI gaining 0.68% to $69.83, as investors reacted to President Trump’s threats of 25%-50% secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers and possible military action against Iran over its nuclear program. Despite initial declines, prices stabilized as analysts debated whether Trump would act on his threats, with UBS noting rising supply risks while IG suggested market skepticism was capping gains. Meanwhile, negotiations to restart Kurdish oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline stalled due to unresolved payment and contract issues.
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- Oil and gas execs reveal where they expect WTI oil price to be in the future
- Summary: The first-quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey found that executives from 124 oil and gas firms expect WTI crude oil prices to average $68 per barrel in six months, $70 in a year, $74 in two years, and $82 in five years. The survey also revealed that firms require an average of $41 per barrel to cover operating expenses for existing wells, up from $39 last year, while the breakeven price to profitably drill new wells is $65 per barrel, ranging from $61 to $70 depending on the region. Large firms need $31 per barrel to cover operating expenses and $61 to profitably drill, while small firms require $44 and $66, respectively.
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- US oil, gas rig count drops first time in 3 weeks – Baker Hughes
- Summary: U.S. energy firms reduced the total oil and gas rig count by one to 592 for the first time in three weeks, according to Baker Hughes. Oil rigs fell by two to 484, while gas rigs increased by one to 103, bringing the total rig count 5% lower than the same period last year. The Permian Basin saw the largest decline, losing three rigs and dropping to 297, the lowest level since February 2022.
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- Peak Permian? Geology and water say we’re close
- Summary: Some Permian Basin areas have hit geological limits, with the gas-to-oil ratio rising from 34% in 2014 to 40% in 2024, signaling production constraints. U.S. crude output is expected to reach 13.61 million bpd in 2025, but experts foresee a peak between 2027 and 2030. A high water-to-oil ratio—four barrels per barrel of oil—is also driving up costs, challenging long-term output.
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- Trump’s 1st 2025 oil, gas leases net $40M from 34 parcels
- Summary: The U.S. Interior Department reported nearly $40 million in revenue from oil and gas lease sales on public land during the first quarter of 2025, with 34 parcels covering 25,038 acres leased. The sales align with Trump’s Executive Order 14154, promoting American energy dominance, and revenue will be shared between the federal government and states including Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Nevada. These leases, governed by the National Environmental Policy Act, have a 10-year term with a 16.67% federal royalty rate.
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- BP, Shell, and Exxon signal one thing: Oil isn’t going anywhere
- Summary: BP, Shell, and Exxon are ramping up oil and gas investments, with BP increasing spending by 25% and Shell targeting 4-5% annual LNG sales growth through 2030. U.S. supermajors like Exxon and Chevron never pivoted away from hydrocarbons—Exxon plans an 18% production boost in five years, while Chevron expands in Kazakhstan and acquires Hess’s Guyana assets. Despite energy transition talks, major oil firms remain focused on fossil fuels, with TotalEnergies balancing diversification while achieving a 14.8% return on capital.
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