November 3, 2025 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- The oil glut will last into 2026. Here’s why it’s unclear how big it will be.
- Summary: An oil glut, currently at 1.9 million b/d, is expected to last through 2026, but its size is now uncertain following new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil. The IEA previously projected the surplus could reach 4 million b/d, a forecast that has kept Brent crude down 13% (to ~$64) and WTI down 14% (to ~$60) this year, below the $63 breakeven price for U.S. drillers. The sanctions’ impact is the key variable, with Goldman Sachs estimating a severe 1.5 million b/d supply cut could push prices toward $73 (WTI $63).
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- Natural gas prices navigate volatility amid global shifts
- Summary: Natural gas markets remain volatile due to a tug-of-war between strong U.S. production and uncertain demand as the peak winter season begins, with prices consolidating since March 2023. The 2025–26 winter is expected to be colder, with heating degree days projected to rise 3% in the U.S. and Europe, and U.S. residential/commercial demand forecast to increase by 1.6 Bcf/day year-on-year. Global gas demand is projected to grow 1.7% in 2025, while China’s domestic production has risen 6%, reducing its recent LNG imports.
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- US rig count falls for the first time in three weeks, says Baker Hughes
- Summary: For the second straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by two to 550 as of October 24, its highest level since June, though it remains down 6% year-over-year. This increase was driven entirely by oil rigs, which rose by two to a new total of 420, while gas rigs held steady at 121; the Texas rig count fell one to a low of 236. Despite a planned 3% capex cut for 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.5 million bpd and a 56% gas price hike will boost gas output to 107.1 bcfd.
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- Exxon and Chevron boost production despite weak oil prices
- Summary: U.S. oil majors Exxon and Chevron increased Q3 production despite forecasts of a global supply glut and weak prices, with WTI hovering near $60/bbl. Exxon’s overall production rose to 4.8 million bbl/day, driven by a record 1.7 million boe/day in the Permian and 700,000 bbl/day in Guyana. Chevron’s output also hit a record 4.1 million bbl/day, up 21% Y/Y, as WTI closed the week at $60.98, Brent at $65.07, and the EIA forecasts Brent falling to $52/TYPE/bbl in 2026.
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- BP to sell $1.5 billion in US midstream asset stakes
- Summary: BP has agreed to sell non-controlling stakes in its bpx energy midstream infrastructure to private investment firm Sixth Street for $1.5 billion, advancing its capital optimization strategy. The deal includes 49% of the US Permian assets (including pipelines and four processing facilities) and 75% of the Eagle Ford midstream system, with BP remaining the operator. This transaction, paid as $1 billion upfront and $500 million by year-end, helps BP recycle capital and moves it toward its $20 billion divestment target by 2027.
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- Chevron’s Hess acquisition boosts third-quarter output
- Summary: Chevron reported strong Q3 results, with adjusted EPS of $1.85 (beating $1.68 expected) and record production of 4.1 million boepd, up from 3.4 million boepd a year earlier, following its $53-billion Hess acquisition. The production increase reflects the integration of Hess’s Guyana operations and higher domestic shale output, while operating cash flow (ex-working capital) climbed nearly 20% year-on-year to about $9.9 billion. Chevron management reaffirmed plans to cut $2-3 billion in costs through 2026 by streamlining operations and consolidating overlapping positions from the Hess acquisition.
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- SM Energy and Civitas Resources to combine in $12.8 billion deal
- Summary: SM Energy and Civitas Resources are merging in an all-stock deal valued at $12.8 billion (including debt), creating a top independent U.S. producer with 823,000 net acres in the Permian and DJ basins. Civitas shareholders will receive 1.45 SM Energy shares per share, valuing Civitas at $30.29 (a 5% premium), and will own 52% of the combined company, which retains the SM Energy name. Expected to close in Q1 2026, the firm had pro forma Q2 production of 526 MBoe/d, expects $1.4B in 2025 free cash flow, and $200M in annual savings.
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