October 6, 2025 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- OPEC+ opts for modest oil output hike as supply glut fears mount
- Summary: On October 5, OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output hike of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November, the same pace of increase as in October, amid fears of a looming supply glut. The decision follows a week of heavy losses where Brent crude fell 8.1% to settle at $64.53 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 7.4% to settle at $60.88. This hike continues the unwinding of a second cut tranche of 1.65 million bpd, after the group has already raised its targets by more than 2.7 million bpd so far this year.
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- U.S. oil, gas drillers pause amid oil price drop
- Summary: For the week ending October 3, the U.S. total rig count held steady at 549, though it remains down 36 rigs from a year ago, according to the latest Baker Hughes report. The steady total was due to oil rigs falling by one to 422, a drop offset as gas and miscellaneous rigs each rose by one, while the key Permian Basin rig count also fell by two to 251. Despite this pause, U.S. weekly crude production for the week of Sept 26 rose to 13.505 million bpd, as WTI traded near $61.18, down $4.60 for the week.
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- Execs predict where oil price will land in future
- Summary: The Q3 Dallas Fed Energy Survey reveals a declining short-term outlook, with 136 oil executives expecting a year-end 2025 WTI price of $63.06, down from the $68.18 forecast in Q2. The executives also gave mean forecasts of $63 for six months, $64 for one year, $69 for two years, and a stable $77 for five years, reflecting a lower view than in prior surveys. Reflecting this price uncertainty, a combined 78% of exploration and production executives (36% “significantly” and 42% “slightly”) have reported delaying investment decisions.
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- APA trimmed Q2 natural gas, NGL production due to weak prices
- Summary: In Q2, APA Corp. curtailed its U.S. production by ~10 million cf/day of natural gas and 750 bbl/day of NGLs in response to weak or negative Waha hub prices. The company reported estimated average Q2 U.S. realized prices of $64.85/bbl for oil and just $1.00/Mcf for gas, well below its global average gas price of $4.00/Mcf. APA also completed the sale of its New Mexico assets in June for net proceeds of $575 million, a deal which reduced its Q2 U.S. production by ~1,800 boe/day, roughly 33% of which was oil.
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- U.S. to issue oil, gas permits during shutdown
- Summary: During a partial U.S. government shutdown affecting an estimated 750,000 workers, the administration plans to continue permitting oil and gas development while curtailing work on offshore wind. The Bureau of Land Management will continue onshore permitting, but the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the EPA plan to furlough 72% and 89% of their staff, respectively. Despite this, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission will furlough 96% of its 1,500+ staffers, threatening to stall new natural gas pipeline and LNG export facility permits.
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- European Union’s U.S. gas use set to soar, increasing price volatility
- Summary: Due to lower storage and declining pipeline flows, Europe will need up to 160 additional LNG cargoes this winter, with total LNG imports for the year jumping from 660 to 820 tankers. LNG’s share of EU gas supply has soared to 48% from just 10% a decade ago, and analysts project the U.S. will supply around 70% of Europe’s LNG in 2026-2029, up from 58% this year. As of October 4, EU gas storage stood at a four-year low of 82.75% of capacity, with forecasts that it could drop to a seven-year low of 29% by the end of this winter.
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- Expand Energy CEO expects U.S. LNG export capacity to double by 2030
- Summary: The CEO of Expand Energy expects U.S. Gulf Coast LNG export capacity to double to about 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) a day by 2030, with AI and data centers adding 4-5 bcf per day of demand. Signaling high market volatility, the CEO also predicted that gas prices could average over $5.50 per million cubic feet (mcf) and also fall below $2.50 per mcf between now and 2027. He acknowledged that LNG markets will see periods of oversupply and noted that litigation and high costs are limiting factors for building the necessary new pipeline infrastructure.
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