Valor | Energy Connection – Sept. 2, 2025

January 6, 2025 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

• Exxon sees 20% gas demand growth by 2050, U.S. nearing records in 2025
• Summary: Exxon projects global natural gas demand will rise over 20% by 2050 from 2024 levels, while oil demand will plateau after 2030 but stay above 100 million barrels per day. By 2050, oil and gas are expected to hold around 55% of the global energy mix, with energy-related CO₂ emissions projected at 27 billion metric tons, a ~25% decline from current levels. In the near term, Exxon sees U.S. gas demand hitting new records in 2025, a forecast underpinning its plan for an 18% production increase over the next five years.
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1. Chevron CEO disputes forecasts of an oil demand collapse
2. Summary: In a New York Times interview, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth rejected IEA predictions of an oil demand collapse, arguing that even after peaking, demand will likely remain on a high plateau. He stated that because oil is a “depletion business,” continued investment in new supply is necessary even when demand is flat, just to replace the barrels that have been produced. Wirth warned that stopping production prematurely risks energy shortages, a view backed by Chevron’s recent acquisition of Hess Corp. and its key stake in Guyana’s Stabroek block.
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1. US rig count falls for second straight week, Baker Hughes says
2. Summary: For the second straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count fell, dropping by two to 536 as of August 29, its lowest level since August 2021 and down 8.1% from the previous year. The overall decline was driven by natural gas rigs, which fell by three to 119, a move that more than offset a one-rig increase in the total oil rig count to a new total of 412. Despite this drilling slowdown, the EIA projects U.S. crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and a 65% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.4 bcfd.
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• U.S. shale bets on efficiency gains amid budget cuts
• Summary: Amid WTI crude prices in the low to mid-$60s (about 13% below year-ago levels), U.S. shale producers are cutting capital expenditure and reducing their drilling activity. Companies like Devon, Occidental, and Diamondback are each trimming their 2025 capital budgets by $100 million, relying on efficiency gains from AI and faster drilling to maintain output. While some CEOs believe production has peaked, the EIA forecasts efficiency will push U.S. crude output to a record 13.6 million bpd in December 2025 before it then declines.
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• Oil prices dip but stay on track to extend last week’s gains
• Summary: Oil prices were set for a weekly gain but dipped slightly Friday, with Brent crude trading at $68.17 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $64.20. The weekly rise was driven by supply uncertainty after new 25% U.S. tariffs on Indian exports kicked in, even as India plans to boost its Russian crude imports by 10-20% in September. However, prices were capped by the end of the U.S. driving season, with one analyst forecasting that Brent could fall to $63 a barrel in Q4 2025 as OPEC+ continues to increase its supply.
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1. Upstream oil sector cuts nearly 3,000 jobs this summer
2. Summary: The Texas upstream oil and gas sector shed nearly 3,000 jobs over the summer, a 1.5% workforce reduction tied to WTI crude prices hovering near $63 per barrel, abundant global supplies, and a decline in active rigs from 280 in January to 253 by July’s end. Industry consolidation, including Chevron’s integration of Hess and related layoffs, also contributed. Analysts note these developments reflect near-term market pressures but emphasize that long-term fundamentals remain anchored to global demand and production needs.
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1. California regulators halt plan to penalize oil companies for high profits
2. Summary: The California Energy Commission postponed until 2030 a plan to penalize oil companies for high profits, following the announced closure of two refineries that account for 18% of the state’s capacity. The penalty, authorized by a 2023 law, had not been implemented, and the delay comes as California’s gas prices stood at $4.59 a gallon, far above the $3.20 national average. The move was praised by the Western States Petroleum Association as a “needed step” but was criticized by the group Consumer Watchdog as a “giveaway to the industry.”
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The information provided by Valor in this blog is for general informational purposes only, not to provide specific recommendations or legal or tax-related advice. The blog/website should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.