Industry Newsletter Archives

Valor | Energy Connection – Oct. 27, 2025

Posted on October 27, 2025October 27, 2025 by Valor

October 27, 2025 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

Oil and gas industry layoffs accelerate with lower prices
Summary: Oil and gas industry layoffs accelerate due to lower prices and M&A integration, impacting firms like Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, BP, Halliburton, and SLB. These companies are cutting thousands of roles through reorganization and restructuring to improve efficiency. Chevron plans a 20% workforce reduction by end-2026, ConocoPhillips up to 25%, and BP targets 6,200 office roles by end-2025 after cutting 3,200 contractors and planning another 1,200 contractor cuts this year.
Read more

Oil spikes as U.S. sanctions Russian producers
Summary: New U.S. sanctions froze assets of Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, and blocked U.S. entities from dealing with them, causing oil prices to leap over 5%. Intended to pressure Russia over the Ukraine war, the sanctions led major buyers like India (taking 1.6-1.8M bpd) and China (17% of imports) to prepare massive cuts in Russian crude. This disruption pushed Brent crude above $65/barrel, boosting Shell and BP shares by ~3%, while Exxon and Chevron saw smaller gains of 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.
Read more

U.S. rig count rises for second straight week, Baker Hughes says
Summary: For the second straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by two to 550 as of October 24, its highest level since June, though it remains down 6% year-over-year. This increase was driven entirely by oil rigs, which rose by two to a new total of 420, while gas rigs held steady at 121; the Texas rig count fell one to a low of 236. Despite a planned 3% capex cut for 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.5 million bpd and a 56% gas price hike will boost gas output to 107.1 bcfd.
Read more

Oil prices head for weekly gain after U.S. sanctions spark rally
Summary: New U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil pushed oil prices higher, putting benchmarks on track for a weekly gain after recent losses, with Brent near $65.63 and WTI near $61.43 after adding ~$4/bbl. The rally was sparked by reports that major buyers China and India are pausing new orders for Russian crude, which totals over 2 million barrels per day (bpd), as they assess sanction risks. Despite the pause, analysts believe the impact may be limited as replacing this volume is challenging, and Russia might circumvent the sanctions.
Read more

LNG buildout needs both Permian and Haynesville gas
Summary: Growth in U.S. LNG exports, set to add 15 Bcf/d of capacity to the current 17.5 Bcf/d, necessitates increased gas supply from both the Permian and Haynesville basins due to Appalachian takeaway limits. The EIA forecasts Permian output reaching 28 Bcf/d and Haynesville 15.6 Bcf/d by 2026, though bottlenecks like the Katy hub (with <3 Bcf/d to Gillis) require more Haynesville output. Pipeline expansions totaling 8 Bcf/d are planned, while higher prices above Haynesville’s ~$3.50/MMBtu breakeven will spur drilling.
Read more

Water shortage threatens Texas refining hub
Summary: Corpus Christi, a major Texas refining hub processing >900,000 bpd, faces its worst water shortage, with storage at ~11.7% capacity, potentially reaching a Level 1 emergency late next year. This threatens the industrial sector, which used >1.1 billion gallons in September (more than residents/businesses), while a $1.2B desalination plant is uncertain. The city’s new plan uses surcharges ($12/1000 gal over 12M gal/month) and potential 5% cuts for industry, as manufacturing water use grew to 23.1B gal/yr by 2023.
Read more

Natural gas holds $3.30 on record LNG exports and rising winter demand
Summary: U.S. natural gas prices settled near $3.30/MMBtu, holding a 10% weekly gain despite a 1.2% daily drop, balancing high storage against rising heating demand and record LNG exports. Storage sits at 3,878 Bcf (~5% above the 5-year average), while LNG export flows surged to an all-time high of 17.29 Bcf/d, exceeding April’s record, and production remains high near 106.7 Bcf/d. Technically, prices hold support above $3.20-$3.27, with a potential technical rally targeting $3.71–$3.80 if bullish momentum sustains.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

The information provided by Valor in this blog is for general informational purposes only, not to provide specific recommendations or legal or tax-related advice. The blog/website should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.

Valor | Energy Connection – Oct. 20, 2025

Posted on October 20, 2025 by Valor

October 20, 2025 Edition

U.S. oil growth shifts from Shale to Gulf
Summary: U.S. oil growth is shifting from maturing shale fields to the Gulf of Mexico, where output is projected to rise from 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.4 million bpd by 2027. Driven by tech advances and lower breakevens (offshore as low as $20/bbl vs. $48/bbl shale average), deepwater projects like BP’s $5B Tiber-Guadalupe are gaining favor. The EIA forecasts Gulf output reaching 1.96 million bpd in 2026, offsetting slowing onshore growth and highlighting offshore’s rising importance under supportive federal policies.
Read more

Texas’ orphaned well count hits highest level in nearly 20 years
Summary: Texas’ orphaned oil and gas well count reached 10,029, the highest level since August 2006, according to watchdog group Commission Shift and confirmed by the Railroad Commission. Although the agency plugs about 1,300 wells annually, critics argue this pace is insufficient, leaving leaking wells unaddressed while the backlog continues to grow due to market conditions. In response, the legislature passed Senate Bill 1150 to tighten rules for inactive wells, scrutinize transfers, and require compliance plans, though calls for stricter bonding remain.
Read more

Supply and demand fears drag oil prices lower
Summary: Oil prices fell in early Asian trade Monday, with Brent crude down 0.29% to $61.11 and WTI down 0.35% to $57.34, continuing a third consecutive weekly decline of over 2% for both. The drop is driven by supply concerns as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and the IEA forecasts a 2026 surplus, coupled with demand fears stemming from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. Easing geopolitical risks and record-high U.S. oil production are also adding to the downward pressure on prices, according to analysts.
Read more

Kazakhstan monitors oil after Russian gas plant hit
Summary: Kazakhstan’s energy ministry is monitoring its oil production after Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Orenburg gas plant, over 1,000 km from the border, causing it to halt gas intake from Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak project. The drone attack, which Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed, may impact Karachaganak’s co-produced oil and gas output, highlighting Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike capabilities. Ukraine also claimed a strike on the 170,000 bpd Novokuibyshevsk refinery, damaging a primary crude processing unit.
Read more

NextDecade greenlights $6.7 billion LNG expansion
Summary: U.S. LNG developer NextDecade announced a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 5 at its Rio Grande LNG facility, committing $6.7 billion to the expansion project. Train 5 will add approximately 6 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of capacity, bringing the total under construction to ~30 MTPA, supported by 4.5 MTPA in 20-year sales agreements with JERA, EQT, and ConocoPhillips. This FID follows Train 4’s approval and other U.S. LNG project sanctions this year, with Train 5’s completion and first commercial delivery expected in the first half of 2031.
Read more

LNG boom impacts U.S. consumer prices
Summary: U.S. LNG exports hit record highs, reaching 9.4 million tons in September (up from 9.3 million in August), driven by strong global demand, particularly from Europe. This export boom is contributing to higher U.S. natural gas prices (up ~$1/MMBtu year-over-year), creating tension with the goal of cheap domestic energy. As shale basins mature, executives say prices must hit $5/MMBtu to incentivize drilling in costlier areas, with LNG exports potentially rising from 14 Bcf/d (July) to 27 Bcf/d according to analysts.
Read more

U.S. rig count rebounds, showing industry resilience
Summary: According to Baker Hughes, the U.S. oil and gas rig count saw a minor increase for the week ending October 18, rising slightly to 547, though the total count is still down 37 rigs (6%) year-over-year. Oil rigs held steady at 418, while gas rigs rose by one to 121, their highest count since August; the Texas rig count fell by one to 237, its lowest since September 2021. Despite planned 4% capex cuts, the EIA projects 2025 crude output will rise to 13.5 million bpd and gas output will reach 107.1 bcfd amid a projected 56% gas price increase.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Oct. 13, 2025

Posted on October 13, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

October 13, 2025 Edition

US drillers cut oil and gas rigs for first time in 6 weeks, Baker Hughes says
Summary: For the first time in six weeks, the U.S. oil and gas rig count fell, dropping by two to 547 as of October 10, a total now 7% below the prior year. The decline was driven by oil rigs, which fell four to 418, while gas rigs rose two to 120; both the Texas and Permian rig counts also hit their lowest levels since September 2021. Despite this, the EIA projects 2025 crude output will rise to 13.5 million bpd and that gas output will increase to a new record of 107.1 billion cubic feet per day.
Read more

US oil production growth is stalling
Summary: U.S. oil output is beginning to flatten as operators slow drilling and shift focus toward efficiency. With prices near $63 per barrel, producers are exercising capital discipline, causing rig counts to ease across the Lower 48. Analysts anticipate modest declines through Q4, which could tighten supply and support prices into 2025. This near-term slowdown reflects a cautious approach among operators seeking stability amid market uncertainty.
Read more

EIA adjusts U.S. oil forecast after producers set a record in July
Summary: Following a record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, the EIA increased its forecast to 13.5 million b/d for both 2025 and 2026. The report expects stable U.S. output and growing LNG exports to offset softer prices, helping maintain balance in global supply. Despite current drilling slowdowns, the outlook remains positive, with U.S. production positioned for consistent strength and long-term resilience across the energy sector.
Read more

Natural gas prices hinge on EIA report and 50-day average
Summary: On October 9, U.S. natural gas futures stabilized near the 50-day moving average of $3.284, trading at $3.360 after a nearly 5% drop, as traders awaited the weekly EIA storage report. Analysts forecast a +77 Bcf injection, below the 94 Bcf 5-year average, but bearish factors include high production at 106.8 Bcf/d (+4.7% y/y) and U.S. inventories 5.0% above their five-year average. The outlook remains neutral to bearish, capped by warmer weather forecasts and flat LNG demand, with the market’s direction hinging on the EIA data.
Read more

Exxon restarts gasoline unit after brief Beaumont outage
Summary: ExxonMobil restarted the 120,000-barrel-per-day gasoline-producing unit at its 612,000-bpd Beaumont refinery two days after a malfunction-induced shutdown. The brief outage at one of the largest U.S. refineries was watched closely, as an extended disruption could have impacted gasoline supplies with inventories near their five-year average. The market reaction was muted, suggesting traders expect a quick normalization, but the incident highlights the razor-thin margin for error in the U.S. refining system.
Read more

Energy markets recover slightly on geopolitical calm
Summary: On Monday, October 13, energy markets saw a mild recovery as easing geopolitical tensions lifted sentiment, with WTI crude climbing to $59.81 and Natural Gas trading around $3.12. WTI remains in a bearish trend below its 50-day EMA of $61.55, while Brent crude struggles near $63.57, also below its 50-day EMA of $65.22. Natural Gas found support at $3.06 and is considered oversold, but a sustained rebound depends on bulls reclaiming the $3.20 level, with its 50-day EMA at $3.29 acting as overhead resistance.
Read more

Chevron expands India hub to boost digital and AI capabilities
Summary: Chevron’s Engineering and Innovation Excellence Centre (ENGINE) in Bengaluru, its largest tech hub outside the U.S., supports global operations with a $1 billion investment over four to five years. The center has hired over 1,000 people, surpassing its initial goal of 600 professionals by the end of 2025, with over 10% being university hires. The ‘AI-first’ workforce uses technologies like AI and IoT to support global energy operations, reduce emissions, and cut down subsurface data processing from months to just weeks now.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Oct. 6, 2025

Posted on October 6, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

October 6, 2025 Edition

OPEC+ opts for modest oil output hike as supply glut fears mount
Summary: On October 5, OPEC+ agreed to a modest oil output hike of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November, the same pace of increase as in October, amid fears of a looming supply glut. The decision follows a week of heavy losses where Brent crude fell 8.1% to settle at $64.53 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tumbled 7.4% to settle at $60.88. This hike continues the unwinding of a second cut tranche of 1.65 million bpd, after the group has already raised its targets by more than 2.7 million bpd so far this year.
Read more

U.S. oil, gas drillers pause amid oil price drop
Summary: For the week ending October 3, the U.S. total rig count held steady at 549, though it remains down 36 rigs from a year ago, according to the latest Baker Hughes report. The steady total was due to oil rigs falling by one to 422, a drop offset as gas and miscellaneous rigs each rose by one, while the key Permian Basin rig count also fell by two to 251. Despite this pause, U.S. weekly crude production for the week of Sept 26 rose to 13.505 million bpd, as WTI traded near $61.18, down $4.60 for the week.
Read more

Execs predict where oil price will land in future
Summary: The Q3 Dallas Fed Energy Survey reveals a declining short-term outlook, with 136 oil executives expecting a year-end 2025 WTI price of $63.06, down from the $68.18 forecast in Q2. The executives also gave mean forecasts of $63 for six months, $64 for one year, $69 for two years, and a stable $77 for five years, reflecting a lower view than in prior surveys. Reflecting this price uncertainty, a combined 78% of exploration and production executives (36% “significantly” and 42% “slightly”) have reported delaying investment decisions.
Read more

APA trimmed Q2 natural gas, NGL production due to weak prices
Summary: In Q2, APA Corp. curtailed its U.S. production by ~10 million cf/day of natural gas and 750 bbl/day of NGLs in response to weak or negative Waha hub prices. The company reported estimated average Q2 U.S. realized prices of $64.85/bbl for oil and just $1.00/Mcf for gas, well below its global average gas price of $4.00/Mcf. APA also completed the sale of its New Mexico assets in June for net proceeds of $575 million, a deal which reduced its Q2 U.S. production by ~1,800 boe/day, roughly 33% of which was oil.
Read more

U.S. to issue oil, gas permits during shutdown
Summary: During a partial U.S. government shutdown affecting an estimated 750,000 workers, the administration plans to continue permitting oil and gas development while curtailing work on offshore wind. The Bureau of Land Management will continue onshore permitting, but the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the EPA plan to furlough 72% and 89% of their staff, respectively. Despite this, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission will furlough 96% of its 1,500+ staffers, threatening to stall new natural gas pipeline and LNG export facility permits.
Read more

European Union’s U.S. gas use set to soar, increasing price volatility
Summary: Due to lower storage and declining pipeline flows, Europe will need up to 160 additional LNG cargoes this winter, with total LNG imports for the year jumping from 660 to 820 tankers. LNG’s share of EU gas supply has soared to 48% from just 10% a decade ago, and analysts project the U.S. will supply around 70% of Europe’s LNG in 2026-2029, up from 58% this year. As of October 4, EU gas storage stood at a four-year low of 82.75% of capacity, with forecasts that it could drop to a seven-year low of 29% by the end of this winter.
Read more

Expand Energy CEO expects U.S. LNG export capacity to double by 2030
Summary: The CEO of Expand Energy expects U.S. Gulf Coast LNG export capacity to double to about 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) a day by 2030, with AI and data centers adding 4-5 bcf per day of demand. Signaling high market volatility, the CEO also predicted that gas prices could average over $5.50 per million cubic feet (mcf) and also fall below $2.50 per mcf between now and 2027. He acknowledged that LNG markets will see periods of oversupply and noted that litigation and high costs are limiting factors for building the necessary new pipeline infrastructure.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Sep. 29, 2025

Posted on September 29, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

September 29, 2025 Edition

US oil and gas rig count rises to highest since June, Baker Hughes says
Summary: For the fourth straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by seven to 549 as of September 26, its highest since June, though it remains down 6% year-over-year. The increase was driven by oil rigs, which rose six to 424, while gas rigs fell one to 117; however, the key Permian Basin rig count actually fell by one to a new low of 253. Despite a planned 4% capex cut by E&P firms for 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd and a 61% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.6 bcfd.
Read more

Wood Mackenzie: Oil and gas firms prep for downturn as capex tightens
Summary: Wood Mackenzie reports that oil and gas companies are preparing for a challenging 2026, with capital budgets expected to tighten as firms emphasize financial discipline over aggressive growth. Reinvestment rates are projected to average 50%, enabling about 45% of operating cash flow to be returned to shareholders, following nearly $349 billion already distributed in 2024. The analysis also notes reduced spending on low-carbon projects, with European majors at 30% of budgets and others allocating 10–20%.
Read more

OPEC+ poised to fall further below its oil output target
Summary: OPEC+ has delivered only about 75% of its targeted oil output increases since April, resulting in a production shortfall of almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5% of global demand. The deficit is due to members making compensation cuts and others hitting capacity limits, which has helped support Brent crude prices near a seven-week high of $69 per barrel. As OPEC+ plans further hikes of 547,000 bpd in September and 137,000 bpd in October, analysts predict the group may only deliver about half of these targeted increases.
Read more

Russian fuel cuts push oil toward biggest weekly gain in 3 months
Summary: Oil prices were on track for their biggest weekly gain in three months (over 4%), with Brent crude rising to $69.65 a barrel and WTI crude to $65.31 on Friday, September 26. The gains were driven by Russia’s decision to introduce a partial ban on diesel exports and extend its gasoline export ban following Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. This bullish sentiment was also supported by strong U.S. economic data, which showed that U.S. GDP increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate in the last quarter.
Read more

Natural gas struggles at $3.20 as U.S. storage swells toward 3.8 tcf
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures are struggling below the $3.20/MMBtu level, pressured by a supply glut as U.S. production holds steady at a near-record 107 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). A recent EIA storage injection of 75 Bcf has pushed inventories toward 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), with analysts projecting stocks could reach a high of 3.8 Tcf by the end of October. The oversupply is so severe that spot prices at Canada’s AECO hub have crashed into negative territory, plunging to between –$0.55 and –$0.80 per gigajoule.
Read more

Energy secretary: Most coal plants to delay retirement for AI boom
Summary: Most U.S. coal-fired plants are expected to delay retirement to meet the sharp increase in electricity demand from the AI boom. Officials outlined a broader strategy that includes boosting nuclear energy, using emergency measures to keep existing plants running, and operating backup generators to increase output. To support this, federal land has been opened for new power plants and data centers, with more than 300 inquiries already submitted.
Read more

Vistra to build new gas power plants in the Permian Basin
Summary: Vistra Corp. announced a final investment decision to build two new natural gas power units totaling 860 megawatts (MW) at its Permian Basin plant, tripling the site’s capacity to 1,185 MW. This is part of Vistra’s multi-year plan to add over 2,000 MW of new generation capacity in the Texas ERCOT market between 2024 and 2028 to meet the state’s growing power needs. Upon completing all projects, Vistra will have invested nearly $2 billion to add approximately 3,100 MW of new generation capacity in Texas since 2020.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Sep. 22, 2025

Posted on September 22, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

September 22, 2025 Edition

Big oil returns to exploration with a bang
Summary: Major oil firms like BP and Shell are shifting back to exploration in key areas like Guyana and Brazil, driven by energy security concerns and poor returns from renewable investments. A prime example is BP’s biggest discovery in 25 years in Brazil, a 500-meter hydrocarbon column with an estimated 2.0-2.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent. This strategic reset is backed by significant financial shifts, with BP increasing its annual upstream investment to $10 billion while cutting over $5 billion from its clean energy spending.
Read more

US rig count rises for third straight week, Baker Hughes says
Summary: For the third straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by three to 542 as of Sept 19, its highest level since July, though it remains down 8% year-over-year. This increase was driven entirely by oil rigs, which rose by two to a new total of 418, their highest since July, while the number of natural gas rigs held steady at 118 for the week. Despite a planned 4% capex cut in 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd and a 61% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.6 bcfd.
Read more

Could US LNG become a victim of its own success?
Summary: U.S. LNG investment is booming despite the risk of an oversupply, driven by strong global demand as Europe plans to ban Russian imports from 2028 and Asian demand grows. Despite a potential near-term margin squeeze, the long-term (15-20 year) Free-on-Board contracts for U.S. LNG offer offtakers unrivaled trading optionality and arbitrage opportunities. This boom is supported by a deep pool of capital from infrastructure funds, strategic investors, and debt markets, as well as supportive U.S. government policies.
Read more

Natural gas price hits $2.88 as storage surplus pressures market
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures extended losses to a three-week low, with the October contract settling down 1.74% on September 19 at $2.888 per MMBtu amid a growing storage surplus. A recent bearish EIA report revealed a weekly storage injection of 90 billion cubic feet (Bcf), higher than the expected 81 Bcf, pushing total U.S. inventories to 6.3% above their five-year average. The oversupply is compounded by U.S. dry gas production of 107.6 Bcf/day (+6.1% y/y) outpacing demand of 73.1 Bcf/day (-4.6% y/y), weighing heavily on the market.
Read more

Oversupply and demand fears push WTI to $62.68, Brent to $66.68
Summary: On Friday, oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling down 1.40% at $62.68 a barrel and Brent crude dropping 1.13% to $66.68, capping a volatile week. The decline was driven by oversupply concerns as OPEC+ loosens its output cuts and weak demand signals, including a surprising 4 million barrel jump in U.S. distillate stockpiles. This bearish sentiment overshadowed the Federal Reserve’s first quarter-point rate cut of 2025, which failed to boost any demand amid signs of slowing U.S. economic activity.
Read more

Natural gas: America’s secret weapon in the AI power race
Summary: Natural gas producers anticipate that rising electricity demand and consumer energy bills, which are up over 35%, will accelerate the approval of new U.S. gas infrastructure. This comes as U.S. power demand is projected to rise by 2.4% annually through 2030, with AI-related data centers accounting for about two-thirds of this incremental growth. Goldman Sachs forecasts that over $700 billion in grid investment is needed through 2030 and sees natural gas as best positioned to meet this demand due to its flexibility and abundance.
Read more

Scientists find the invisible culprit behind dry oil wells
Summary: To understand why oil wells often run dry prematurely, Penn State researchers have used the Bridges-2 supercomputer to develop a new “4D” seismic imaging method for oil exploration. The method adds a time dimension and analyzes signal amplitude, revealing hidden rock formations that block access to untapped oil reserves, which standard 3D scans can miss. This technique, proven in a 9-square-mile area, can show that drilling deeper may unlock more oil, and the team is now expanding its work to analyze full-scale oil fields.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Sep. 15, 2025

Posted on September 15, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

September 15, 2025 Edition

ConocoPhillips to procure LNG from NextDecade’s Rio Grande project
Summary: ConocoPhillips has signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement to procure one million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from NextDecide’s Rio Grande LNG project in Texas. The LNG will be offtaken on a free-on-board basis with pricing indexed to the Henry Hub benchmark, a deal that advances ConocoPhillips’ global strategy and 10 to 15 mtpa offtake ambition. This deal makes ConocoPhillips a key foundation customer for Train 5, which is now fully commercialized, with a final investment decision expected in Q4 2025.
Read more

California Resources to buy Berry Corp in $717 million deal
Summary: California Resources will buy Berry Corp in an all-stock deal valued at about $717 million, including debt, a move which sent Berry’s shares up 14.8% to $3.80 in early trading. Berry shareholders will receive 0.0718 California Resources shares for each share they own, with California Resources shareholders set to own about 94% of the combined company. On a pro forma basis, the new entity would have produced about 161,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 and held about 652 million boe of proved reserves as of year-end 2024.
Read more

U.S. rig count holds steady as Texas, Permian Basin hit 2021 lows
Summary: According to the Baker Hughes report for the week ending August 15, the U.S. rig count held steady at 539, though this total remains down 8% from a year ago. The steady total was due to oil rigs rising by one to 412, offsetting a one-rig drop in gas rigs to 122, while both Texas and the Permian rig counts fell to their lowest levels since September 2021. Meanwhile, Enverus data showed Permian drilling permits at 606, down from 699 a year ago, while active frac crews in the basin fell to 82 from 100 a year earlier.
Read more

Renewed concerns over Russian crude supplies
Summary: The oil market weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks on Friday, with October WTI settling up 32 cents at $62.69 and November Brent up 62 cents at $66.99. The market rallied from a low of $61.69 after a drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk oil port suspended loading, and the Kremlin announced a pause in peace negotiations with Ukraine. In the U.S., the total rig count rose for a second straight week to 539, and refinery offline capacity is expected to increase to 585,000 bpd for the week ending September 12.
Read more

Another week of indecision for oil prices
Summary: Crude oil prices were indecisive this week, trading in a tight range with WTI between $61.70-$64.10 and Brent between $65.50-$68.15, before settling higher for the week. Bearish fundamentals, including an OPEC+ output hike of 137,000 b/d and a U.S. inventory build, were pitted against bullish geopolitical events like an Israeli attack in Qatar and a drone strike on a Russian oil port. U.S. economic data added to the market’s uncertainty, with August’s CPI rising to 2.9% while jobless claims hit their highest level since October of 2021.
Read more

Natural gas struggles below $3.00 as storage surplus weighs on prices
Summary: U.S. natural gas futures are under pressure, with the October contract settling at $2.941/MMBtu and struggling below the $3.00 psychological barrier due to a growing storage surplus. A recent EIA storage injection of 71 billion cubic feet (Bcf), well above the 56 Bcf five-year average, has lifted total inventories to 3,343 Bcf, now 6% above the seasonal norm. With U.S. production at 112.3 Bcf/d outpacing demand of 99.5 Bcf/d, the market faces the risk of ending the injection season with its inventories near 4.0 trillion cubic feet.
Read more

Big oil cuts spending as $60 oil bites
Summary: With Brent crude in the $60-$70 range, the U.S. shale patch has seen a 1.7% job loss, its fastest pace since 2022, while ConocoPhillips plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce. In response, 22 U.S. oil companies have cut a combined $2 billion in spending, and Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 4.3% decline in global capex this year, the first such drop since 2020. U.S. shale production has reversed, with late August output at 13.4 million bpd (down from 13.6 million in Dec), as the industry enters a “wait-and-see” mode.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Sept. 8, 2025

Posted on September 8, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

September 8, 2025 Edition

Permex signs $3 million option agreement to acquire producing wells
Summary: Permex Petroleum has entered into a six-month option agreement to purchase oil and gas assets for a total of $3 million, including a minimum of $1.75 million in cash. The assets include over 50 producing wells and 20,000 net mineral acres and are considered “turn-key prepared” for in-field Bitcoin mining, producing approximately 4 megawatts of power. This move aligns with Permex’s recent non-binding letter of intent with 360 Energy to deploy off-grid, gas-powered Bitcoin mining operations to monetize otherwise stranded gas.
Read more

Court rules produced water belongs to drillers, not surface owners
Summary: In Cactus Water Services v. COG Operating, the Texas Supreme Court ruled that produced water, a byproduct of oil and gas extraction, is owned by the mineral lessee unless the lease explicitly reserves it for the surface owner. The case involved more than 52 million barrels of produced water from 72 wells across 37,000 acres in Reeves County. The decision brings clarity to ownership rules and may encourage investment in treatment and reuse infrastructure.
Read more

OPEC+ set to raise oil output further from October, Iraq says
Summary: OPEC+ is set to agree to another oil output hike from October, though likely at a slower pace than in recent months due to weakening global demand, according to sources. An Iraqi official suggested a hike of 130,000-140,000 barrels per day (bpd), a slowdown from September’s 547,000 bpd increase, as Brent crude closed Friday at $65.50 a barrel. This move would begin to unwind a second cut tranche of 1.65 million bpd over a year ahead of schedule, after the group already raised its quotas by about 2.5 million bpd since April.
Read more

Expectations of higher supply and an increase in U.S. crude
Summary: On Friday, the crude market fell for a third straight session on supply concerns, with October WTI settling down $1.61 at $61.87 and November Brent down $1.49 at $65.50. The drop was driven by reports that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to consider unwinding a 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) tranche of halted supplies sooner than scheduled to reclaim market share. In the U.S., the total rig count rose for the first time in seven weeks to 537, while weak jobs data (only 22,000 new payrolls) added to concerns about demand.
Read more

U.S. gas storage surplus creates shifts for energy sectors
Summary: A new EIA report reveals a structural U.S. natural gas oversupply, with storage as of August 29 at 3,272 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 173 Bcf above the five-year average. With inventories projected to hit 3,926 Bcf by Oct 31 and upstream investment down 34% since 2015, the report suggests an underweight for the oil and gas sector due to margin compression. Conversely, the report suggests an overweight for the logistics sector, which benefits from stable fuel costs (25-35% of expenses) as oversupply has cut gas price volatility from 102% to 69%.
Read more

Natural gas prices are undercut by cooler weather forecasts
Summary: October Nymex natural gas prices closed down 0.85% on Friday, September 5, undercut by forecasts for cooler U.S. weather that are expected to reduce air-conditioning demand. The bearish sentiment was supported by U.S. electricity output falling 7.82% year-over-year for the week ended August 30 and a weekly EIA report showing a 55 bcf inventory build. While the 55 bcf build was above the 5-year average of +36 bcf, total U.S. gas inventories as of August 29 stood at 5.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate supply.
Read more

U.S. rig count rises for the first time in seven weeks, says Baker Hughes
Summary: For the first time in seven weeks, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by one to 537 as of September 5, though the total count is still down 7.7% from the previous year. The slight overall increase was driven by oil rigs, which rose by two to a new total of 414, a move that was partially offset by a one-rig decrease in the gas rig count to a total of 118. Despite recent trends, the EIA projects U.S. crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and a 65% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.4 bcfd.
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Sept. 2, 2025

Posted on September 2, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

January 6, 2025 Edition

Exxon sees 20% gas demand growth by 2050, U.S. nearing records in 2025
Summary: Exxon projects global natural gas demand will rise over 20% by 2050 from 2024 levels, while oil demand will plateau after 2030 but stay above 100 million barrels per day. By 2050, oil and gas are expected to hold around 55% of the global energy mix, with energy-related CO₂ emissions projected at 27 billion metric tons, a ~25% decline from current levels. In the near term, Exxon sees U.S. gas demand hitting new records in 2025, a forecast underpinning its plan for an 18% production increase over the next five years.
Read more

Chevron CEO disputes forecasts of an oil demand collapse
Summary: In a New York Times interview, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth rejected IEA predictions of an oil demand collapse, arguing that even after peaking, demand will likely remain on a high plateau. He stated that because oil is a “depletion business,” continued investment in new supply is necessary even when demand is flat, just to replace the barrels that have been produced. Wirth warned that stopping production prematurely risks energy shortages, a view backed by Chevron’s recent acquisition of Hess Corp. and its key stake in Guyana’s Stabroek block.
Read more

US rig count falls for second straight week, Baker Hughes says
Summary: For the second straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count fell, dropping by two to 536 as of August 29, its lowest level since August 2021 and down 8.1% from the previous year. The overall decline was driven by natural gas rigs, which fell by three to 119, a move that more than offset a one-rig increase in the total oil rig count to a new total of 412. Despite this drilling slowdown, the EIA projects U.S. crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd in 2025 and a 65% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.4 bcfd.
Read more

U.S. shale bets on efficiency gains amid budget cuts
Summary: Amid WTI crude prices in the low to mid-$60s (about 13% below year-ago levels), U.S. shale producers are cutting capital expenditure and reducing their drilling activity. Companies like Devon, Occidental, and Diamondback are each trimming their 2025 capital budgets by $100 million, relying on efficiency gains from AI and faster drilling to maintain output. While some CEOs believe production has peaked, the EIA forecasts efficiency will push U.S. crude output to a record 13.6 million bpd in December 2025 before it then declines.
Read more

Oil prices dip but stay on track to extend last week’s gains
Summary: Oil prices were set for a weekly gain but dipped slightly Friday, with Brent crude trading at $68.17 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $64.20. The weekly rise was driven by supply uncertainty after new 25% U.S. tariffs on Indian exports kicked in, even as India plans to boost its Russian crude imports by 10-20% in September. However, prices were capped by the end of the U.S. driving season, with one analyst forecasting that Brent could fall to $63 a barrel in Q4 2025 as OPEC+ continues to increase its supply.
Read more

Upstream oil sector cuts nearly 3,000 jobs this summer
Summary: The Texas upstream oil and gas sector shed nearly 3,000 jobs over the summer, a 1.5% workforce reduction tied to WTI crude prices hovering near $63 per barrel, abundant global supplies, and a decline in active rigs from 280 in January to 253 by July’s end. Industry consolidation, including Chevron’s integration of Hess and related layoffs, also contributed. Analysts note these developments reflect near-term market pressures but emphasize that long-term fundamentals remain anchored to global demand and production needs.
Read more

California regulators halt plan to penalize oil companies for high profits
Summary: The California Energy Commission postponed until 2030 a plan to penalize oil companies for high profits, following the announced closure of two refineries that account for 18% of the state’s capacity. The penalty, authorized by a 2023 law, had not been implemented, and the delay comes as California’s gas prices stood at $4.59 a gallon, far above the $3.20 national average. The move was praised by the Western States Petroleum Association as a “needed step” but was criticized by the group Consumer Watchdog as a “giveaway to the industry.”
Read more

Contact Valor Today

Valor | Energy Connection – Aug. 26, 2025

Posted on August 26, 2025October 21, 2025 by Valor

August 26, 2025 Edition

Interior Department updates commingling policy to strengthen energy production and safety
Summary: In alignment with the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” the Department of the Interior has updated its oil and gas commingling rules to clarify standards and enhance operational safety and efficiency. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement has finalized offshore guidelines to ensure well integrity and optimal resource recovery. Simultaneously, the Bureau of Land Management issued interim guidance expanding commingling authority on public and tribal lands until updated regulations are in place.
Read more

U.S. oil drillers continue to play it safe
Summary: The U.S. total rig count fell by one to 538 for the week ending August 22, down 47 rigs from a year ago and hovering near a four-year low, according to the Baker Hughes report. The overall drop was due to oil rigs falling by one to 411 (a 72-rig decline year-over-year), while gas rigs held steady at 122, and the key Permian Basin rig count also held at 255. Despite this drilling slowdown, weekly U.S. crude production for the week ending August 15 rose slightly to 13.382 million bpd, with WTI trading near $63.60 a barrel.
Read more

Equinor uncovers new oil and gas in North Sea
Summary: On August 25, Norwegian energy major Equinor announced a new oil and gas discovery at a prospect named F-South, located 9 kilometers (5.6 miles) north of the Troll field in the North Sea. Total resources in the new discovery are estimated at between 0.1 and 1.1 million standard cubic meters, which is equivalent to between 0.6 and 6.9 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent. The “near-field” find is significant as it can be tied to existing infrastructure, which lowers development costs and helps maintain Norway’s hydrocarbon output.
Read more

Why the IEA reinstated its “Business as Usual” scenario
Summary: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will reintroduce its “Current Policies Scenario” in its upcoming World Energy Outlook, a modeling approach last used in 2019. This model, which does not assume the renewal of expiring policies, was replaced in 2019 by a “Stated Policies Scenario” that resulted in faster peak fossil fuel demand forecasts. The reversal follows industry arguments that removing the baseline discouraged oil and gas investment and government requests for a clearer reference for long-term planning.
Read more

Oil and gas sector key to renewable energy growth – IEA
Summary: A new IEA report warns that renewable energy cannot scale at the needed rate without greater investment and expertise from the oil and gas sector. The report highlights a major investment gap, stating that low-carbon fuels need to be 15% of fuel supply investment within a decade, but current spending by oil and gas firms is only about 1%. The IEA also identifies reducing methane leaks as a key action, as the industry accounts for 15% of energy emissions, but notes investment is still needed to prevent an 8% annual output decline.
Read more

UBS sees Brent oil prices staying in the high $60s in tight market
Summary: Investment bank UBS forecasts Brent crude will stay at the upper end of the $60-$70 per barrel range in the near term due to a tight market during the peak summer demand season. However, UBS expects prices to moderately drop toward the lower end of the $60-$70 range later in the year as supply from South America continues to rise and demand weakens in the fourth quarter. As of Friday, Brent was trading above $67 and WTI above $63, but a narrowing backwardation signals traders believe supply will soon become plentiful after summer.
Read more

EIA expects record U.S. natural gas consumption in 2025
Summary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase by 1% to a record 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. This record is driven by high consumption early in the year, with January at 126.8 Bcf/d (up 5% from Jan 2024) and February at 115.9 Bcf/d (up 5% from the previous February record). The 2025 growth comes from residential and commercial sectors, offsetting a decline in electric power use, while the EIA projects a slight decrease in consumption for 2026.
Read more