Valor | Energy Connection – Aug. 18, 2025

August 18, 2025 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

• Trump moves to open 82% of Alaska’s petroleum reserve for drilling
• Summary: The Trump administration plans to open 82% of the 23-million-acre National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska for oil and gas development, the Interior Department confirmed. The plan would make about 18.5 million acres available for leasing to boost Alaska’s oil output, a key source of state revenue and annual dividends for residents. Managed by the Bureau of Land Management, the reserve is the largest federally controlled land block designated for energy development.
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1. Oil markets seen bearish after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting
2. Summary: Following a meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents in Alaska, analysts observed a bearish tone in oil markets, with Brent settling at $65.85 and WTI at $62.80 on Friday. The market reaction was influenced by reduced expectations for immediate sanctions on Russian crude, which eased concerns about supply disruptions. Traders now turn their attention to a follow-up meeting in Washington with Ukrainian and European leaders, where additional developments could shape near-term energy market sentiment.
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1. Global oil markets will face record surplus in 2026, says IEA
2. Summary: The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record global oil surplus in 2026, with inventories projected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day (bpd). This surplus is driven by slowing demand, with 2025 consumption growth at its weakest since 2019 (680,000 bpd), while non-OPEC+ supplies are set to grow by 1 million bpd in 2026. The forecast comes as crude prices have already declined roughly 12% this year to near $66 a barrel, with global oil inventories having already reached a 46-month high in June.
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• EIA: Brent crude oil prices expected to decline significantly in coming months
• Summary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude prices to fall significantly, from an average of $71 per barrel in July to $58 in Q4 2025 and about $50 in early 2026. This drop is driven by expected global oil inventory builds averaging over 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in late 2025 and early 2026, following recent OPEC+ production hikes. The EIA also projects U.S. crude output will hit a record 13.6 million b/d in December 2025 before declining to 13.1 million b/d by Q4 2026 due to the lower prices.
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• Where are natural gas prices heading?
• Summary: U.S. natural gas futures saw a sharp drop in late summer, declining over 32% from a high of nearly $4.20 per MMBtu on June 20 to a recent low of $2.764 on August 13. As of August 8, U.S. gas inventories stood at 3.186 trillion cubic feet, which is 2.4% below the previous year’s level but 6.6% above the five-year average for this time of year. Despite the recent drop, lower year-over-year inventories, rising U.S. LNG export demand, and approaching peak-season seasonality suggest limited downside risk for prices ahead.
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1. U.S. LNG: Record exports, rising prices, and a looming problem
2. Summary: U.S. LNG exports hit a record 69 million tons in the first eight months of 2025, a 22% increase from 2024, with exports to Europe alone soaring by 61% year-over-year. Despite record U.S. gas production of 108.1 Bcf/d, industry leaders warn that future export growth is threatened by insufficient pipeline capacity to transport gas to liquefaction facilities. A new U.S. mandate requiring 1% of exports on U.S.-built vessels from 2029 is an added challenge, as these ships are estimated to cost 2-4 times more than foreign-built ones.
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1. U.S. oil and gas rig count holds steady this week, Baker Hughes says
2. Summary: For the week ending August 15, the U.S. oil and gas rig count held steady at 539, though the Permian Basin and Texas each saw a one-rig drop to new lows since September 2021. The steady national total was due to a one-rig increase in the oil count to 412, which was offset by a one-rig decrease in the natural gas rig count to a new total of 122. Despite a planned 4% capex cut for 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd and a 65% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.4 bcfd.
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