January 5, 2026 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- Big oil prepares for leaner prices and harder choices in 2026
- Summary: The IEA forecasts a 3.84 million bpd supply surplus in 2026, while Goldman Sachs predicts LNG exports will surge over 50% through 2030. Wood Mackenzie projects the Permian Basin will account for more than 50% of U.S. onshore production, even as broader Lower 48 output stalls and companies defend maintenance levels at roughly $60 WTI. Facing this glut, firms may trim buybacks and shift M&A focus toward gas assets to meet rising AI and export demand.
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- U.S. oil drilling activity ends down for 2025, but production still near highs
- Summary: The total U.S. rig count rose by one to 546, as oil rigs increased by three to 412 while gas rigs fell by two to 125, leaving the total down 43 from last year. Weekly crude production increased slightly to 13.827 million bpd, remaining just 26,000 bpd shy of the all-time high reached three weeks prior. Permian Basin activity held steady at 247 rigs, down 57 year-over-year, while the Eagle Ford slipped by one to 40, indicating that output remains robust despite reduced drilling activity.
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- OPEC+ reaffirms output pause as eight producers cite market stability
- Summary: Eight OPEC+ producers confirmed a production pause through Q1 2026, citing healthy fundamentals despite an 18% price drop in 2025, the steepest annual decline since the pandemic. The group emphasized flexibility regarding the return of 1.65 million bpd in voluntary cuts, pledging to fully compensate for overproduction recorded since January 2024. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others will continue monthly reviews to monitor market stability, with the next virtual meeting scheduled for February 1, 2026.
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- Venezuela’s political climate to drive oil markets after Maduro capture
- Summary: Oil futures fluctuated as experts forecast a potential short-term price increase of $2-$3 per barrel, contingent on how Venezuela’s political and economic conditions evolve. Despite holding massive reserves, the country currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, or under 1% of global supply, with 80% of exports previously flowing to China. Analysts warn that due to chronic underinvestment, it will take three to five years to recover to 2 million barrels daily.
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- Venezuelan oil policy shakes energy markets
- Summary: The U.S. administration revoked Chevron’s license, impacting 240,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude exports, though unexpected U.S. inventory builds suggest weakening demand. Natural Gas trades at $3.94 with immediate support at $3.75, while WTI sits at $68.75, remaining bearish below its $69.25 pivot. Brent holds at $72.26, forming a Triple Bottom pattern that could target resistance at $73.
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- U.S. natural gas futures fall ahead of warmer weather, slow demand
- Summary: U.S. natural gas futures for February delivery fell 9.6 cents, or 2.6%, to $3.59 per mmBtu as forecasts for warmer weather reduced expected heating demand, with Heating Degree Days dropping from 413 to 369. Production in the lower 48 states reached a record 110 bcfd in December, while LNG export flows also hit a record high of 18.5 bcfd. Meanwhile, storage saw a withdrawal of just 38 bcf for the week ended December 26, missing the 50 bcf analyst forecast.
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- U.S. LNG exports break 100 million tons in record 2025
- Summary: The U.S. set a global record by exporting 111 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, exceeding 2024 levels by 23 million tons and surpassing Qatar by nearly 20 million. New capacity at Plaquemines LNG added 16.4 million tons, fueling a December record of 11.5 million tons as Europe remained the top destination with 9 million tons imported. Turkey purchased more U.S. LNG in December than all of Asia combined, while 2026 outlooks see further growth as Golden Pass begins production.
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