Valor Energy Connection - Industry News September 29, 2025

Valor | Energy Connection – Sep. 29, 2025

September 29, 2025 Edition

At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.

  • US oil and gas rig count rises to highest since June, Baker Hughes says
  • Summary: For the fourth straight week, the U.S. oil and gas rig count rose, climbing by seven to 549 as of September 26, its highest since June, though it remains down 6% year-over-year. The increase was driven by oil rigs, which rose six to 424, while gas rigs fell one to 117; however, the key Permian Basin rig count actually fell by one to a new low of 253. Despite a planned 4% capex cut by E&P firms for 2025, the EIA projects crude output will rise to 13.4 million bpd and a 61% gas price hike will boost gas output to 106.6 bcfd.
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  1. Wood Mackenzie: Oil and gas firms prep for downturn as capex tightens
  2. Summary: Wood Mackenzie reports that oil and gas companies are preparing for a challenging 2026, with capital budgets expected to tighten as firms emphasize financial discipline over aggressive growth. Reinvestment rates are projected to average 50%, enabling about 45% of operating cash flow to be returned to shareholders, following nearly $349 billion already distributed in 2024. The analysis also notes reduced spending on low-carbon projects, with European majors at 30% of budgets and others allocating 10–20%.
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  1. OPEC+ poised to fall further below its oil output target
  2. Summary: OPEC+ has delivered only about 75% of its targeted oil output increases since April, resulting in a production shortfall of almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5% of global demand. The deficit is due to members making compensation cuts and others hitting capacity limits, which has helped support Brent crude prices near a seven-week high of $69 per barrel. As OPEC+ plans further hikes of 547,000 bpd in September and 137,000 bpd in October, analysts predict the group may only deliver about half of these targeted increases.
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  • Russian fuel cuts push oil toward biggest weekly gain in 3 months
  • Summary: Oil prices were on track for their biggest weekly gain in three months (over 4%), with Brent crude rising to $69.65 a barrel and WTI crude to $65.31 on Friday, September 26. The gains were driven by Russia’s decision to introduce a partial ban on diesel exports and extend its gasoline export ban following Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure. This bullish sentiment was also supported by strong U.S. economic data, which showed that U.S. GDP increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate in the last quarter.
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  • Natural gas struggles at $3.20 as U.S. storage swells toward 3.8 tcf
  • Summary: U.S. natural gas futures are struggling below the $3.20/MMBtu level, pressured by a supply glut as U.S. production holds steady at a near-record 107 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). A recent EIA storage injection of 75 Bcf has pushed inventories toward 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), with analysts projecting stocks could reach a high of 3.8 Tcf by the end of October. The oversupply is so severe that spot prices at Canada’s AECO hub have crashed into negative territory, plunging to between –$0.55 and –$0.80 per gigajoule.
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  1. Energy secretary: Most coal plants to delay retirement for AI boom
  2. Summary: Most U.S. coal-fired plants are expected to delay retirement to meet the sharp increase in electricity demand from the AI boom. Officials outlined a broader strategy that includes boosting nuclear energy, using emergency measures to keep existing plants running, and operating backup generators to increase output. To support this, federal land has been opened for new power plants and data centers, with more than 300 inquiries already submitted.
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  1. Vistra to build new gas power plants in the Permian Basin
  2. Summary: Vistra Corp. announced a final investment decision to build two new natural gas power units totaling 860 megawatts (MW) at its Permian Basin plant, tripling the site’s capacity to 1,185 MW. This is part of Vistra’s multi-year plan to add over 2,000 MW of new generation capacity in the Texas ERCOT market between 2024 and 2028 to meet the state’s growing power needs. Upon completing all projects, Vistra will have invested nearly $2 billion to add approximately 3,100 MW of new generation capacity in Texas since 2020.
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The information provided by Valor in this blog is for general informational purposes only, not to provide specific recommendations or legal or tax-related advice. The blog/website should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state.

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