January 12, 2026 Edition
At Valor, our goal is to keep you informed of the latest news and updates from the oil and gas industry. We are committed to sharing the insights and knowledge that our team gathers to help you stay ahead in this dynamic sector. From mergers and acquisitions to regulatory changes and technological advancements, we cover all the key developments that impact the industry. Stay tuned for weekly updates to keep you well-informed.
- Goldman warns oil prices may ease further in 2026 as oversupply deepens
- Summary: Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that oil prices will decline in 2026 due to a “continuing supply wave,” with Brent averaging $56 per barrel and WTI $52. A projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day—driven by robust output from the U.S., Russia, and Venezuela—is expected to push inventories higher and outweigh geopolitical risks. The bank anticipates prices will bottom in Q4 2026 before a gradual recovery begins in 2027 as the market rebalances.
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- Oil market dynamics: factors that will drive prices in 2026
- Summary: Crude oil posted its sharpest decline since 2020 in 2025, with Brent dropping 19% to near $60.85 and WTI falling 20% to $57.42 amid persistent oversupply. While the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Maduro creates political uncertainty, immediate supply impacts are limited given production is under 1 mb/d. Forecasts for 2026 remain bearish with Brent expected between $54–$62, as a potential 2–4 mb/d surplus outweighs a modest 1.2 mb/d demand growth projection.
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- Baker Hughes reports first rig count drop in three weeks
- Summary: U.S. energy firms cut the total rig count by two to 544, with oil rigs falling by three to 409 and gas rigs dropping to 124, marking the first decline in three weeks. The Permian Basin count hit its lowest level since August 2021 at 244, contributing to a 7% year-over-year decline in total rigs. Meanwhile, the EIA projects 2026 crude output will dip to 13.5 million bpd amid falling prices, while gas production is forecast to rise to 109.1 bcfd on a 13% price increase.
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- Texas oil and gas pours $27 billion into public budgets
- Summary: The Texas oil and gas industry paid $27 billion in state and local taxes in 2025, a 1% dip from the prior record, with $2.6 billion going to school districts. Employment rose to 495,500 and average wages hit $133,095, while July crude production set a record of 5.9 million barrels per day despite global oversupply. TXOGA President Todd Staples emphasized the industry is adjusting to market conditions while preparing for rising natural gas demand from AI data centers.
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- Venezuela oil sector fragile as companies seek changes
- Summary: Oil firms demand reforms before investing in Venezuela, where the interim government agreed to transfer 30-50 million barrels of crude to the US after Maduro’s capture. Production dropped to 1.1 million barrels per day from a 3.5 million peak, prompting the US to supply naphtha diluent while seizing three sanctioned vessels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods called the sector uninvestable without changes, leading President Trump to suggest excluding the company despite its offer to assist.
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- In 2025, U.S. natural gas spot prices increased from 2024’s record low
- Summary: U.S. natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub averaged $3.52 per MMBtu in 2025, a 56% increase from 2024’s inflation-adjusted record low. While record production and lower power sector demand softened summer prices, winter heating needs and a 3 Bcf/d rise in LNG exports drove the annual average higher. Regionally, Northeast prices surged due to pipeline constraints and cold weather, whereas the Northwest saw declines driven by abundant Canadian supply.
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- U.S.A. crude oil stocks drop nearly 4MM barrels WoW
- Summary: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the SPR) fell by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million in the week ending January 2, placing levels about 3% below the five-year average. Conversely, total motor gasoline inventories rose by 7.7 million barrels and distillate stocks increased by 5.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization remained steady at 94.7%, while crude imports jumped by 1.4 million barrels per day.
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