Valor | Energy Connection – September 14, 2026

Valor | Energy Connection – September 14, 2026

TL;DR: Brent crude surged past $108 per barrel following Saudi pipeline closures and tight global inventory projections, heightening expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike. Despite lower capex, U.S. natural gas production heads toward record highs alongside expanding Permian midstream capacity, while total U.S. rig counts rebounded to 591.

September 14, 2026 Edition

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  • Brent oil passes $108 per barrel
    Summary: Brent crude spiked to $108.49 per barrel and WTI reached $106.60 after Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline, putting about 4% of global supply at risk. Global supply projections indicate 100.7 million bpd in 2026, down 5.7 million bpd year-over-year, as inventories dropped by 507 million barrels since February. Additionally, U.S. August headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year and final-demand PPI advanced 5.4%, creating an 86% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point interest-rate increase.
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  • Summit Petroleum reports success in Upton County with U-turn lateral wells
  • Summary: Summit Petroleum completed five U-turn lateral wells in Upton County, achieving an average initial production rate of 1,584 barrels per day in the southern Midland Basin. The company’s 10-well development plan includes seven U-turn laterals and three straight laterals, with targets in the Jo Mill, Wolfcamp B, and Spraberry formations. Operations averaged 20 days from drill to rig release versus an estimated 23 days for the 21,000-foot measured depth wells across Summit’s single section of land.
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  • U.S. rig count rises to 591 as oil and gas drilling both increase
  • Summary: The U.S. rig count increased by three to 591 for the week ending September 11, standing 52 rigs or nearly 10% above the 539 operating a year ago. Oil rigs rose by one to 450 while natural gas rigs increased by two to 132, reflecting year-over-year gains of 34 oil rigs and 14 gas rigs. Regional activity showed the Williston Basin adding five rigs to reach 32 and North Dakota gaining four to reach 28, while New Mexico lost three rigs to drop to 92 and the Permian remained unchanged at 268 rigs.
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  • Summit Midstream confirms expansion of Double E pipeline in Delaware Basin
  • Summary: Summit Midstream made a final investment decision to expand the Double E pipeline by installing a compressor station to increase forward haul capacity to the Waha hub by about 900 million cfd. The company signed a new long-term transportation agreement for 200 million cfd, raising total contracted capacity on Double E to roughly 2.2 billion cfd. Supported by 550 million cfd of binding commitments, the expansion project targets an in-service date in Q4 2028 with discussions ongoing for 450 million cfd.
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  • U.S. natural gas market verging on record growth
  • Summary: The EIA projects U.S. natural gas production to reach record highs of 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027, up from 107.6 bcfd in 2025. Domestic consumption and average LNG exports are also set to expand, with LNG exports forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. An EY benchmark study noted that natural gas production rose 18% and reserves increased 14%, even as industry capital expenditures fell 49% and overall M&A spending dropped 70% year over year.
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  • Soaring oil prices put Fed on track for September rate hike
  • Summary: Data from CME Group indicates 90% of trading respondents expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike following crude’s rise above $100 per barrel, an 8% gain last week, and Brent briefly topping $108. ING analysts highlighted that the August inflation reading of 3.4% remains well above target, with monthly core consumer prices up 0.29%. Meanwhile, AAA data shows U.S. national average fuel costs reaching $4.3120 per gallon for gasoline and rising to $6.2040 for diesel after diesel touched a $6 record.
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  • Debunking the viral claim that America has only 14 days of oil left
  • Summary: A viral claim misleads by comparing the 286.6 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with 20.7 million barrels per day of petroleum product demand, ignoring continuous domestic crude output of 13.9 million barrels per day and commercial stocks of 424.5 million barrels. The SPR, which held 638 million barrels in 2020, stands at its lowest level since November 1982 after a 180-million-barrel Biden release and a 172-million-barrel Trump exchange commitment. Recent DOE releases saw SPR stocks decline by 650,000 barrels daily over four weeks.
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Key Takeaways

  • Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline closure drove Brent crude to $108.49 per barrel and WTI to $106.60.
  • U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% in August, prompting a ~90% market expectation of a September Fed rate hike.
  • Summit Petroleum successfully completed five U-turn lateral wells in the Midland Basin averaging 1,584 bpd.
  • Total U.S. active rig count increased by three to 591, driven by gains in the Williston Basin.
  • Summit Midstream sanctioned an expansion of the Double E pipeline in the Delaware Basin by 900 million cfd.
  • The EIA forecasts record U.S. natural gas output of 111.7 bcfd in 2026 and 115.9 bcfd in 2027.

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